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About last night ...
posted by Mike Boone at 6h15 EST on Mar 14
Saku Koivu said Canadiens played fairly well 5-on-5. He must have been referring to lines other than his own.
Koivu, Christopher Higgins and Sergei Kostitsyn combined for a grand total of zero shots on goal. For 20 shifts and 17 minutes, that's brutal.
The Tomas Plekanec line had more SoG – a total of eight – but most were from a distance and Gerber saw them all. The line was unable to work its usual magic as Ottawa clogged the passing lanes.
The third and fourth lines buzzed the Ottawa net and forechecked with a fair degree of gusto. But they don't score – or at least they didn't last night.
I wonder if Guy Carbonneau will be tempted to tinker with his lines for the Islanders game on Saturday. Canadiens have to figure out a way to get Higgins going.
So, first to fifth in one night.
Yikes! It's like going to bed with Sharon Stone and waking up with Roseanne Barr.
(OK ladies, to be non-sexist and even-handed, it's like going to bed with Colin Farrell and waking up with Stéphane Dion.)
If the playoffs began today, Canadiens would be in Pittsburgh. Maybe there's less snow than in Montreal.
Playoffs don't begin, however, for another few weeks. Between now and then, Canadiens have two more games with Ottawa, which has won five of their six meetings this season.
There has to be a way to beat these guys.
Of course, that's probably what they're saying in Boston as they look ahead to a home-and-home against the Canadiens next week.
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Pronger: By the Simon suspension, the league seems to have said that stomping is a very serious offence (30 games). Therefore, after reviewing what Pronger did (the same or maybe worse) and given the fact that Pronger and Simon have had multiple suspensions, if Pronger gets a game less than 30 we know there is a double standard in play. The principles seem to have felt the Simon was emotionally unstable and out of control. Considering his history of infractions and the unknowns surrounding his sudden, somewhat dubious departure from Edmonton, I think a similar case could/should be made for Pronger. Pronger just gives smoother interviews.
8 games - at least he was suspended, and it falls within the 5-10 range that I had anticipated, but honestly I completely agree that he should have been given something more comparable to Simon. Pronger has a history of dirty play, he was clearly annoyed by a known agitator in Kessler, and he clearly stomped down to free himself out of the situation.
If there is any silver lining to this, it's that Pronger now has a longer rap sheet and if he does anything else in the future, his past will only compound his potential punishment.
Any thoughts on the Pronger/Kesler play? I took at a look at the video on TSN today and think it's clear Pronger made a stomping motion, raising his skate quickly up then down towards a vulnerable Kesler (whether he intended to injure Kesler is not certain, but from the motion itself it can be inferred that Pronger wanted to get away by stomping down).
Some punishment is in order, perhaps not the same amount as what Chris Simon received, but a good 5-10 games seems reasonable to me. Pronger has a history of dirty play and it would be imprudent for the league to let Pronger walk, as it would give people the impression that there are two punitive standards in the NHL - one for stars, and another for those who aren't.
LOL silly boy. Give the impression? There ARE two punitive standards in the NHL. One for goons like Simon, another for skilled players who actually bring something besides their fists to the game.
I suppose just like there are two officiating standards for Mickey Mouse western franchises and established eastern teams like the Canadiens.
If you combine the theories, a "skilled player" on Anaheim like Pronger will undoubtedly receive more favorable treatment than a goon, Simon, on an established eastern team like the Isles. I hope I'm (we're) wrong.
If Pronger doesn't get suspended at all, it will be a complete joke.
Beside Breezer back in for O' Bryne, I read that Lapierre will sit and Smolinski will stay in the line up.
Comparing the two, that decision is as baffling as the O'Bryne/Brisebois switch. Mad Max plays with an edge this team needs badly, he and Begin are the type of super pests that teams need. Besides the difference that can be seen easily while watching a Habs games, the stats also are drastically in Mad Max's favor
In 55, Smolinski has 6 goals and 21 points and is among the teams worst plus/minus players at -8. He is also one of the teams worst penalty killers, as demonstrated by the team's 74.5% success rate with him on the ice. He struggles hugely when used as a defensive type centerman. 5 on 5, he is on the ice for a goal every 21 minutes, again amongst the teams worst. More tellingly maybe the teams 10-3-4 record when he is out of the lineup.
Lapierre on the other had, is amongst the Habs most successful penalty killers and also arguably their strongest defensive forwards in 5 on 5 situations. Unlike Smolinski, Lapierre is successful on 90% of is penalty kill situations and even more importantly 5 on 5, the Habs only surrender a goal every 38 minutes Lapierre is on the ice. Again the most telling stat could be the team's record of 26-14-5 since his call up.
Unless he is injured Mad Max has earned a spot in the lineup, Smolinski has earned his spot as well but it is in the press box.
Good post on another questionable decision,.. like Bill though I usually find no interest in discussing the coach's decisions about which players get to be used and I hardly ever read such posts.... and never does when our goalys are involved in such debate.
One of the best decisions this year was when our team was on the decline at mid-point this year and Gainey brought Sergei, Lapierre and O'Byrne with the big club,... all our major difficultys were tossed aside and the team never looked better from then onward.
The substraction of Smolenski and Brisebois from the line-up AND the addition of those players were keys of our transformation.
This moment was our " moment fort " of this season,... a major turn of event if ever there was one.... what puzzled me is that we needed an " act of God" to take place in order to precipitated the whole thing,... it wasn't Gainey or Carbo who decided to tossed aside the questionable veterans for some fresh addition to our roster.... it was the INJURIES that took them out of the roster.
Its one thing for Gainey to bring in subpar ufa veterans to the club but its quite another one to keep using them when there are better alternatives.
Smolenski played great against New Jersey,... one great game out of 55... Bob has to do better than that... its like its all Timmins's team right now.
could not agree more with what you posted.
Nice work ebk. I am not a big fan of second guessing Carbo, as people who post here are not privey to the reasons the coach makes the decisions he does. However, your statistical analysis comparing Lapierre and Smolinski, both 5-on-5 and killing penalties tells a tale and the tale does not reflect well on the coach.
especially since our pk struggles so much also, having both smokes and breezby in the lineup is gonna make tomorrow's game alot closer than it should be.
I was so disappointed with the loss against the Sens, it really is a hard one to swallow. That said, it was against the Sens and we need to learn to play and beat that team, just as we have done with NJ...albeit, a weaker NJ team then one we've faced in the past.
The line changes for the top 3 lines are good, and necessary. Koivu and Higgins are not working well together. Higgins is not using his speed effectively, nor is he winning his battles. Koivu isn't getting enough space to do anything, and seems to be rushing his passes.
With Lats and Ryder on his wings, Koivu's line won't be as fast but each player has an obvious role. Lats makes room, Koivu makes the play, and hopefully Ryder will go back to being the finisher. Maybe it's better that Koivu's linemates are slower, as it'll give the captain the abilty to set the pace for the line.
Moving Higgins with Sergei and Grabo creates a really, really fast line. Sergei and Higgins have shown some chemistry, and hopefully with a fast centerman they'll be able to generate some good offense. It's a not a very physical line, despite how Sergei plays, so that's my only concern there.
O'Byrne had a terrible game, and I'm not surprised he is sitting. I just don't think that putting Breezer in is the answer. Move Streit back next to Hammer. Sterit is a better player then Breezer, so I don't understand how Breezer is "ahead" in the depth charts when considering the blue line. We already have 3 forwards sitting every game, so let Lapierre, Smokes, Dandy and TK battle it out for the 4th line...add in Begin once he is healthy.
I still want to see the "all centerman line" of Smokes - Begin - Lapierre at some point.
If centers are suppose to be the most responsible forwards, would make sense to put them together for a defensive line, no? Just a thought.
O'Byrne out: Carboneau is just anticipating excessive Saint Patrick's day celebrating.
People are panicking for nothing. It's amazing. Re-f---ing-lax.
Dude, the posters on this board have been reacting like this all season.
Brisebois set to make a return on Saturday according to RDS. Ryan O'Bryne is going to sit. Unless it is for healthy reasons, I have no idea how you can justify making this decision
A few stats for comparison reasons
With Brisebois playing the Habs a mediocre 16-16-5. Without a robust 23-8-4. In 37 games Brisebois has accumulated a grand total of 1 goal and 2 assists at even strength and is a -4. The only place he has made a decent contribution is on the PP but even there the team is worse with him on it than off the PP.
With O'Bryne dressed the Habs are a very solid 15-8-2. In the 25 games he has played O'Bryne has 1 goal and 5 points and is a plus 3. He brings a much needed size element to this team and better yet seems to be improving each game.
The only way to justified Brisebois being in the line up is for his offensive potential. However that seems to have left his game also, he no longer is a threat 5 on 5 offensively and he has been by far the teams worst defenseman all year and is giving Smolinski and Dandenault a run for worst player on the team.
Hard to imagine what Carbo sees that the majority of people are missing.
O'Byrne just isn't that good. I don't see why people are so high on him! All he ever does is bump a few guys in the corners and push the puck towards Hamrlik with the tip of his stick. He's not ready. He's got some nice attributes, but he's just not ready for the faster pace of the NHL. Lacks quick decision-making abilities, right now.
Do you remember what Komi was like when he first made the habs roster? He'd have bad games, he wouldn't make great passes and would make some dumb rookie mistakes.
OB plays a similar game to Komi, although I don't see the same top-end potential with him. But he is getting although he is still miles aawy from securing a roster spot.
Still agree about Breezer tho...he's just not battleing out there with any intensity. Try it one more time, I guess, prior to the playoffs but if it doesn't work, and OB still isn't playing great, lets try Streit back on D.
Komisarek was way sharper than O'Byrne, at this point in his career. It's as if O'Byrne can't decide what type of defenseman he wants to be. Rough 'em up, Ruby! Then again, it's like I said: Needs to catch up to the NHL pace. He should be fine, down the road.
You can debate with others how good he is if you want, right now he is one of the top six defenseman the Montreal Canadiens have. Therefore he plays.
Fair point.
But Breezer isn't as far off as people make him out to be.
breezer is terrible plain and simple, he wouldn't even have a job right now if it wasn't for the habs. obyrne has more even strength points than breezby and is a plus defenceman to boot. Hell callups like valentenko and carle would surpass him on the depth chart if they had the oppurtunity to play at this level. He served his purpose at the beginning of the season, we no longer need him and we are better off with him in the pressbox.
Good post and a good question,.. not easy answer on that one though.
Long term benefit in mind would seems to dictate the use of O'Byrne as much as possible until the start of our eventual playoff season.
As for a short term benefit of using Bris instead of O'B... I cant quite see what would warrant such a decision under most any circumstances.... makes it even harder to comprehended it under our present circumstance of being in " playoff preparation mode ".
With regard to the accusations that this team cannot beat the other elite teams in the league: I think we have to be reminded that this team is growing, evolving and learning. The Western Conference teams we play so seldom that it is hard to say how we would fare in a 7 game series. Even with the Eastern Conference teams, games lost last October have little bearing on what may transpire next month in a playoff series.
Given how far our team has come, and recognizing that more recent games are a truer reflection of our capabilities in a playoff series, I checked our record since the Xmas break.
Our record since Xmas stands at 22W 14L. But more importantly, what is our record against the teams that count, the teams most likey to give us trouble in a series? Here is our record since Xmas. I haven't included non-playoff teams:
NYR 1W 3L
Pens 1L
NJD 3W
Sens 1W 3L
Flyers 2W
Sharks 1L
Ducks 1L
That's 6W 9L. Ouch.
Based on this record, I would say that any speculation on how we will do against Western teams is just that, speculation. 2 loses on a rough road trip through 3 time zones with wives in tow tells us nothing about a 7 game Stanley Cup final.
As for the rest, the stats suggest that the Sens remain a puzzle to be solved while the NJD are a team that we have figured out how to beat. And one loss to the Pens is inconclusive. NYR could be a problem. Altogether, the stats suggest that the accusations have a ring of truth though. If you take away the 2 wins against the Flyers, a non elite team, then our record drops to 4W 9L.
I still say we can beat the Sens. Once you get past that first line, they are a weak team with little depth and suspect goaltending. They put us off our game last night, good for them. But in a 7 game series, we can figure out how to neutralize their big line.
Let's face it, the playoffs are a crap shoot. If we are on our game, we have as much chance as anyone to take it all. If we are not on our game, the most we can hope for is enough playoff experience to help us in a serious run next year.
I think you're closer than most posters to seeing the real picture. Bigger games are tougher for the Habs. Sometimes it isn't the Habs who decide which is a bigger game. Ottawa wanted first, they took it. Anahiem and San Jose wanted to see how they'd do against a fast east team, so they went to work.
I think the Habs record is average, sorry. What gets me is the glimpse of a much better team we see every now and again. But that's all it is right now, a glimpse. Could they put it together in the playoffs? Maybe, but I think they'd still fall prey to the baiting penalties, the ones where the experienced guys swing short, a Habs stick comes up, a face goes lurch or an elbow traps the stick. Then they lose it. They take too many stupid penalties. If you're going to the box then go for a reason.
Vancouver used to have guys that came on the tube after a loss and said all the right things. Work harder, be consistent. The fans loved that. They never won much, but it sounded nice.
Good job Bill-- Only heads up that I would like to add is that the Devils are not the team they used to be in past years, yes they still have Marty but they are in decline unlike us. We have come a long way since Bob has taken over, but we are not there yet as far as the elite teams are concerned. But like I know, we are the next dynasty franchise in the NHL.
Bill,
Excellent analysis--thanks so much for bringing a data-based perspective to the argument.
Hard Hitting?? Im not sure about that Boone. Iv hit my sister harder than most of the hits I saw last night
what a man
It was not one of our best efforts last night but I am not ready to commit Spitzcide. The Sens did not skate us into the ground. The second and third goals could have gone either way. Maybe we were a little too lax in checking these players.
I did notice that we were skating on the perimeter a lot. We allowed ourselves to be pushed to the side. We also had no traffic in front of the net. We need to keep someone in the slot or in the circle . There is no point in having three guys behind the goal or in the corners.
One a positive note we have two more shots at these guys. If we beat them then we go into the playoffs with confidence. If we lose we are no worse off than we are now, assuming we make the playoffs. I know I am stating the obvious but speaking of the playoffs we need to make the most of our games against the likes of Boston, Islanders, Blues and TO. TO is not going to be a cake walk . Those guys are playing real well.
mjames
The game last night was a bad as the New Jersey game was good. Team lacked effort and looked a little disinterested. The Senators were clearly the better team last night but it was just one game folks. This team is young and is prone to a little inconsistency. The big picture sees them still in the hunt for the division and the conference crowns and that is an very decent accomplishment on its own, considering where they finished last year.
Big games on Saturday and Tuesday against the Islanders and Blues respectively. They need to take at least three points and keep the heat on the Senators. March 24th sees the Senators back in Montreal and it should again determine who sits atop the division. If the Habs come out as flat for that one as last night, then I'll be a little concerned
Magic # stays at 11 to clinch a playoff spot. Sabres in tough tonight against Carolina, so hopefully it drops to 9 points after tonight.
Thanks for Reading
ps
(OK ladies, to be non-sexist and even-handed, it's like going to bed with Colin Farrell and waking up with Mike Boone.)