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Boone, many thanks for this great post. The season isn't even over and Lowe has made things more difficult for every GM in the league, including Mr Gainey. I didn't really appreciate Brian Burke's comments last year when Lowe signed Penner to the RFA offer sheet - I discounted what Burke was saying because I thought he was biased since his own player was involved.
But, I now realize that Burke was spot on - Lowe's self-interested moves are hurting the rest of the league by inflating the going rates for players. Lowe's actions are the product of insecurity and desperation, but more importantly, they are indicative of a gross selfishness that is degrading the true value of contracts and the ability of honest teams to improve their clubs.
I hope Mr Gainey will be able to sign Streit and our RFAs for reasonable amounts. I'm thinking a three year, $8m contract for Streit is pretty reasonable all considered. (On the topic of next season, I do think we will resign Gorges and that Cube will be on his way out as a result of the numbers game.)
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16 for 25 all for one
Well, I think you're half-right - some players will have their values inflated, but in a salary-cap league, few teams can afford to do what Lowe is doing, and teams that do tend to end up looking a lot like the Maple Leafs. If Edmonton wants to tie up half their cap in a half-dozen guys, they're welcome to do so.
At any rate, Lowe is likely trying to make amends for discarding the fantastic Ryan Smyth and the dirty Chris Pronger, two players that I'd take over any of those other guys, any day of the week. He's trying to tell his fans that he's willing to spend to win. I don't see this becoming a league-wide thing.
1. www.flickeringpictures.com - not a hockey site, but still kinda neat
2. Josh Gorges on Montreal's speed: "They're comin', they're comin' and they keep comin'. Just line after line, wave after wave..."
"Lowe's actions are the product of insecurity and desperation, but more importantly, they are indicative of a gross selfishness that is degrading the true value of contracts and the ability of honest teams to improve their clubs."
Im not sure what you are getting on about here. If you believe that the NHL is some kind of Care Bears society I've got news for you.
Burke is out for Burke. Gainey is out for Gainey. Kevin Lowe is looking out for himself.
Lowe did what he thought necessary to help his club and keep his job. Any other GM in his position would do the same thing.
Andrei K might get RFA offers but only if the other GM's believe Bob wont match. If someone wants to empty the bank for him he's fair game.
Selfishness has no bearing on the matter. This is the big leagues and if I can somehow improve my team while degrading yours then its game on.
All managers in all leagues have used collusion in different ways to hold prices down amongst teams. They've even been caught doing it from time to time. When a manager makes a move that ripples the water and causes an increase in salaries it upsets others. This is all about revenue first and winning second. You can bet that move was not well recieved by most NHL owners and that causes problems. Yeah, it's dog eat dog, but only if they are making money.
GO HABS.
Kevin Lowe is so paranoid that everyone will jump ship as soon as they attain some value that he will basically do anything to keep them. I said his offer sheet to Vanek last year was insane and it was. Buffalo, after losing two proven commodities, had no choice but to come up with the goods to keep him. Lowe marches to his own drummer and that is fine to a point. But you have to wonder how much of a black sheep this guy is when trading deadlines and GM meetings are going on. I mean, anybody would listen to his offers but would you seek the guy out for a deal? I would imagine that more GM's than just Burke and Regier(spelling?) are upset with Mr. Lowe.
GO HABS.
The only reservation I have with Lowe's contract offerings is that these are young players, which haven't proved their worth over a period of time (see 'regression to the mean' thread). In other words, their brilliant seasons could be outliers. Not only can Gainey use that argument in his negotiations but, with respect to Streit, he can argue that Streit served as both a forward and defenceman whereas Gilbert was strictly a d-man.
It's tough to argue that Streit and Kostitsyn aren't more valuable to their respective teams as Nilsson and Gilbert are to theirs, if you compare scoring stats. However, +/- stats are a bit misleading. A more appropriate measure is relative +/- (how well a player does relative to his team). By this comparison, Nilsson (+1.48) was better than Kostitsyn (+1.27) and Gilbert (+0.50) better than Streit (-0.61). What this means is that when Gilbert was on the ice the Oilers scored more than they allowed but when Gilbert was on the bench the Oilers scored less often and allowed more against. The opposite was true for Streit. Perhaps Gainey could use similar reasoning when negotiating with Streit and Kostitsyn.
Lapierre and Gorges will both sign for reasonable amounts. Laps probably in the 1.5 mill per season range which is acceptable for a third line guy.
Gorges will be in the same range. He is versatile and is developing at an astounding rate but will need to play a few more years to truly establish his NHL value.
Streit is valuable. No point in mincing words. Somewhere is a GM or two who desperately needs a power play specialist who can play forward or defence. 2-2.5 mill per season with a minimum of 3years is the least Streit will take. My sense is he will take a hometown discount to stay but those numbers are the minimum, don't be surprised if he gets offers in the 2.5-3.0 mill per season range.
Anyone that thinks Andrei K is replaceable is dreaming. In his 1st full season he has put up big money numbers and is showing flashes of what he could become. It will take big dollars and a long term deal to keep him here. 5 years in the 20 mill range is probably where he ends up. He is an elite winger whose best years are just starting.
Higgins and Pleks are in that range too. All of these guys are proven commodities and cannot be replaced through draft picks or free agency. The payroll demands probably cant support a big money UFA this season unless a big contract leaves.
Good summary, Gorges already has more experience in the NHL than Tom Gilbert that signed that ridiculous contract with Lowe's Oilers. Imagine what Mike Green will ask for with the Caps.
NM49 - Carter, Stastny, Perry, Pitkanen, Bowmeester, Bouchard, Weber/Suter etc
The Original 24.2 Cups
streit will get more money than most people think and your comment about a desperate g.m. looking for a powerplay specialist is absolutly correct.
mbplefan - I agree on the Habs not signing a big UFA this summer. It's better to budget long term and map out a plan whereby we can retain the guys we have developed over the past few years. At the end of the playoffs, we will know first hand what holes we need to fill on the roster. Not just in term of players but also in terms of needs and skills. If those players are down on the farm then so be it. If not, then we can sign a mid range UFA to fill that need. It makes no sense for us to chase guys like Hossa, Campbell, Sundin, or Jagr.
The Original 24.2 Cups
Two Four - I could live with that as free agency (mid range) and futures should fill the gaps for what we lose to free agency and retirement etc. We have great prospects down the road but we must be aware that not all positions and roles are covered by these young studs so their are holes. This years free agents are not the greatest but we should be able to fill those holes with moderate cost and also management have some deciding to do in the coming years as not all these great prospects can make the team so getting draft choices of some kind for them will help for the future. We must be pro active to benefit from our nice position and standing pat with this rocking chair attitude must go to be successful in the New NHL.
Streit will be unrestricted at the end of the season.
Just to be picky Streit's 30 and AK46 is 23. Maybe this was a re-post from a Booney nervous night in November.
These guys mentioned are good, and I know we're getting attached to them, but they are all replacable; our prospects are deep and I think the UFA market might treat us a bit better now that everybody knows 'la ville est hockey'; people will want to play here.
If Bob thinks they are worth what they're asking, he'll sign 'em. If they love the city and the fans, they might take a bit less than say in... Nashville. Regardless, this team will be just fine in the near future, so let's just enjoy this bunch while we've got them.
They won't take less, they are all about the almighty dollar and our taxes are killer.
"One face-off, one battle, one shift, one period, one game, one series at a time."
I disagree. I think it's about quality of life, and yes, for many players more money is the end all and be all to a better quality of life.
However, I think that a city and an organization like Montreal (when times are good anyway, and the look like they'll be good for a while) can offer these players other incentives, coupled with good money albeit, that may compel them stay. For me there is no better place to live than Montreal and after watching the pregame on Thursday I'm certain there is no place to play like it.
I think that what the city offers in terms of culture and comfort for some of those players who either haven't lived/played in another NA city, or just prefer the quasi-Euro vibe of Montreal could also play an important factor.
Granted, $ might be too important for some of the players, especially big $.
Sorry Wencz - You sound a little naive on this point. Almost without exception, it's about the money - first and foremost. Chara, Savard, Khabibulin, Penner, Handzus, Gomez, Drury, Bierre, Kariya. There are, and will be, lots more.
I'm not here to defend the owners or to criticize the players. We had a strike/lockout. The outcome was a salary cap that was based on fixed, controlled , and predictable costs. Players would be rewarded as they gained experience and the UFA age was lowered so they could reach this threshold at an earlier age. Then Kevin Lowe, through his inepitude and shortsightedness, shortcircuited the system and basically allowed all 3rd year players to become UFA's. Maybe not in terms of the CBA, but certainly in terms of the reality of the market.
Posters go on and on about how the Habs are building a dynasty and we will be at the top of the league for years to come. Who knows. We should be fine for next year but after that we will be facing major salary cap challenges. It would be foolish to think that our players (and their agents) won't be expecting some of the same contracts that other GM's are handing out right now. All of us need to ask this question. Two years from now, what will it cost to maintain our main building blocks for the long term future? I'm talking about Pleks, the K brothers, Higgins, Markov, Komi,and Price. I think Mike Boone's point was that if Tom Gilbert is worth $4mil a year long term then we can only imagine what our young players will be demanding.
The owners may have won the battle (lockout) but they certainly seem to now be losing the war (CBA). Most of these wounds have been self inflicted - I shudder to think what will happen once this Kelly fellow starts taking full command of the player's union.
The Original 24.2 Cups
I wasn't suggesting for a moment that should any of our RFA's be offered something like Penner was, that they wouldn't go for that. Who wouldn't? What I do think is that if the money that Montreal can offer to any of its free agents is competitive but not quite as much as what the others offer (say Nashville for example), then Montreal's offer would still be competitive. Somebody below mentioned Sundin, and I also think that Crosby took a pay cut. Regardless of their reasons, you can't say that it's ALWAYS just the money (although I do agree that it's most important).
And just for argument's sake, most of the players that you listed were big-time UFAs hitting the market for huge money. Although I'm sure Newark and Buffalo are beautiful cities, you couldn't keep me there.
Curious --- besides Souray (and it's not like we really wanted him to stay anyway), who was the last blue chip Hab we lost? Anybody know?
Umm, after Roy, when have we had a blue-chipper? Besides Koivu?
"One face-off, one battle, one shift, one period, one game, one series at a time."
You should have told them all that last summer.
It offers all that for us. not for the players. It's allll about the money.
Until i see proof positive it isn't....
"One face-off, one battle, one shift, one period, one game, one series at a time."
Sundin was willing to take a paycut to stay in Toronto. Surely there are a few players who have a similar attachment to Montreal.
Koivu did. We can always hope. Will Alex Kovalev after next year?
?"One face-off, one battle, one shift, one period, one game, one series at a time."
Whatever available money this year will have to go to the current players.
Thanks Lowe. We're you the one yipping when Brisebois signed his contract for $4 million per? Didn't you say that was irresponsible?
So Robert Nillson is worth more than Higgins and Plekanec?
Okay
And Kevin Lowe still has a job because....
Good point - I have no idea how Edmonton can tolerate the fact that the made so much noise in the off-season (Penner, Vanek, Souray) and still did not make the playoffs. And now Lowe is continuing the same strategy.
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16 for 25 all for one
... because he needs to sign guys young and lock them in because unfortunately noone signs with them otherwise...
Lowe is scared that other teams may take out revenge on him, wonder why?
Paul Devorski and Mike Leggo will be the referees tonight. Derek Amell and Dan Schachte will be the linesmen...
could be worse!!
P.S. Leggo my Eggo!
I think everyone will stay put in Montreal. I believe most of the young players realize what is materializing in Montreal right now and that this the beggining of something that has a glorious future. I think the team has great chemistry and genuinely enjoy the city and eachother.
Gainey and his staff have done EVERYTHING right to this point and there is no reason to think that they won't continue to keep things on the right track.