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How will 2010-11 salary cap impact Habs?
posted by Dave Stubbs at 12h34 EST on Dec 16
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Dave Stubbs has been a sportswriter since 1976, which was roughly a decade after he wore the first of many holes through the knees of his jeans playing nets in road hockey (using a modified butterfly popularized by Hall of Famer Glenn Hall). He still has the welts to show on his shins from that rotten, frozen orange ball.
Stubbs kept thick hockey scrapbooks filled with game summaries and Gazette and Montreal Star stories, collected dozens of Bee Hive Corn Syrup photos and put a fortune of hockey cards through the spokes of his bikes. First book ever owned: Scrubs On Skates, the classic by Scott Young (Neil's dad).
Stubbs's fantasy is to travel back in time to the 1950s and watch the great Canadiens dynasty that won five consecutive Stanley Cups. Or a decade earlier, to watch Elmer Lach centre Rocket Richard and Toe Blake on the fearsome Punch Line. Or at least to get Rogie Vachon into the Hockey Hall of Fame – where he belongs.
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I know, it's already late. But at the start of last season's off-season. Gainey should have taken the decision that this is the time to re-build. I think he made a huge no-no in acquiring Gomez (i knew he would be a bust...who didn't). Then he goes and signs Gionta (not a fan). Cammy i can understand. But then he goes throwing money as if it was nothing at Mara and Gill. These guys never proved to be great players in the first place. Anyways putting that aside. I had a great idea before the draft. Since i think it was time to re-build, I would have liked to see AK and SK shipped to Ottawa for their 9th overall pick. They picked a guy named Cowen. Has tremendous size and reminded me of Chara (maybe not a great but you get my point). I think drafting Leblanc was a good move for the franchise. Too bad he was cut from Team Canada (he had something like 3 exams at Harvard this week), so i can understand. I`ve played with him before (AAA lions) and he would just tear up the league. Putting everything aside. Gainey should also made a move, this years draft is not as strong and i think he should have shipped a 2010 1st rounder to get Setoguchi from the Sharks (doubt they would have taken just that but i`m just saying) Looking at that. Moen was a great pick-up. Like i said, we would be in re-building mode, so no expectations would be needed. We would have had a great first line in Cammy, Pleks and Setoguchi. And from there well time for the guns to shine. Some people might not like it. But i would have been quite content with knowing that our future is in good hands. Now...i`m not so sure it is. Sorry but championship teams are not made from FA signings. GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT GAINEY. IMO this whole off-season splurge was do to the 100th season anniversary and Gainey wanted a contending team. Well i don`t know what he was thinking when he went for Gomez and Gionta. I hope i am proven wrong. BTW; I know i might be contradicting myself by saying teams are not made from FA. But the 2010 class of FA is quite strong (Kovalchuk anyone)... Just saying this guy is A franchise player.
When I think about cap space and look at the cap numbers on NHLnumbers.com, it's not what we have to do to re-sign Plekanec and Price that intrigues me. (Hamrlik is indeed the logical player to move if we need to free up cap space.) Rather, what jumps out at me is this - Gomez for Lecavalier is actually a trade that makes sense for both teams!
I've always laughed when the "Lecavalier to Montreal" stories inevitably pop up every year, never considered them realistic before because I thought a) we couldn't afford him under the cap and b) Tampa simply could not dump its superstar and captain, it would kill the franchise.
But now... from Montreal's perspective, a) is no longer true. Lecavalier's cap hit is huge ($7.727M), but Gomez's cap hit is only $370K less ($7.357M). The difference, from a cap perspective, would be negligible. Whereas the difference on the ice would be huge. Lecavalier's contract is bad, but Gomez's is even worse. So even if you forget the "Montreal craves a francophone superstar" angle, that trade would now be a complete no-brainer from Montreal's perspective, financially as well as hockey-wise.
What's less obvious is... it might actually make sense from Tampa's perspective too. All signs are that b) is no longer true either, that Tampa is in fact shopping Lecavalier. And with young superstars-in-the making like Stamkos and Hedman on the roster, it's a justifiable strategy to blow up the current team and look to rebuild around those guys. They can now dump Lecavalier's salary without their fans losing all hope for the franchise.
And while Gomez's annual cap hit is almost as big as Lecavalier's, from Tampa's perspective his contract is preferable to Lecavalier's for several reasons. First off, Tampa's not trying to compete right away, so that means they don't care as much about cap numbers as they do about actual salary. Over the next 4 years, Gomez actual salary total is $25.5M, while Lecavalier's is $40M. That's a savings of almost $14.5M for Tampa, significant for a team that is losing millions of dollars every year.
Second, Lecavalier's contract has 10 years remaining on it. Over those additional 6 years, Lecavalier is owed an additional $35M of actual salary, while continuing to take up $7.727M of cap space a year. Whereas Gomez's contract only has those 4 years remaining. Meaning that for the 2014/2015 season, just as Stamkos and Hedman are entering their primes (and reaching the point where they can become unrestricted free agents), Tampa Bay would have more money AND cap space available if they decide it's worth spending again to make a run at the Cup with those players.
This just makes too much sense to me. For the first time, I actually think Lecavalier to Montreal is a realistic possibility, and I'm excited. Am I the only one?
You've just contributed one aspect to the understanding of why Gomez' contract is (arguably) perfectly reasonable (contingent upon the rest of the season.)
I could not be less excited at the prospect of acquiring Lecavlier. We hashed it all out last year when the annual "Vinny to Montreal" campaign kicked into high gear but my stance has if anything become even more against acquiring Lecavalier:
You;'ve done the impossible, Chris; you've made the Gomez acquisition look like a good thing!
Agreed on Lecavalier, he would be worse than a 6 million a year penalty killer, aka # 91.
how can this be advantageous to us..forget the francophone thing. VL contract is alot longer than SG so were paying longer for Vinny than Gomez..VL 's contract length is absurd.
I've actually wondered if Phili would do a Halak and Gomez for Briere deal. About the same size in contract and Phili gets a goalie. (But then why would they want Gomez?) It would probably be a slight upgrade for the Habs at center, but Briere probably still doesn't want to play here...
WAY too much for Briere - best years are way behind him....and remember, he did not want to comer to Habland either...had his chance and refused it.
The problem is that the Habs ARE trying to compete right away, and they are forever falling into the 8th to 10th place category in the conference and forever a bubble team. The way the NHL is structured it would be best for the Habs to admit they aren't winning the Cup with this line-up and wont in the near future and start the rebuild proper. If Vinny can get us some high draft picks as he's done for Tampa Bay than I am all for it except for the fact that the Habs can get high picks for less than commiting to as stupid a contract as Vinny's.
BTW, that was not a Gomez-bashing post. Merely a Gomez-trading post. Not the same thing. ;-)
Why would Plekanec sign such a deal? Long-term deals to lower the cap-hit work for players who know their production is going to dip significantly at the end of their term.
Plekanec just turned 27...the next 7 years are essentially the prime of his career. Signing for below market value in THOSE years makes absolutely no sense for him.
But if other teams are going to offer him $4-5 million per now (which seems like a somewhat safe number if he continues producing) and say a 4-5 year deal, He stnads to make $16 million on the low end and $25 million on the high end. And that still leaves him a couple of years to pad out the finances.
As fans, we think in terms of raises and such...players and agents think in terms of comparables around the league. Let's put it this way...Plekanec earned a 50% raise last year (going from $1.8 to $2.75 million) after having the worst season of his career. I think it's fair to say he's looking at a bigger relative jump this season if he has the best season of his career.
If the Habs try to low-ball Price with a $3.33 million per year salary, there is not that much chance his agent accepts. Price is in his 3rd NHL season this year, so he will become arbitration eligible after that. I would say the most comparable situaton would be that of Henrik Lundqvist, who settled for a $4.5 million one-year deal as a RFA after his debut season before signing a long-term, $6.875 million per year deal with the Rangers the following summer.
Playing hardball with your "franchise" goaltender after he's been the starter for 3 seasons is not exactly a good way to encourage player loyalty. Bob Gainey knows this. There is a reason why other teams don't usually play hardball with their young stars...they WANT to keep them long-term.
If you believe that Price is easily replaceable, that is a different conversation. But nothing in Bob Gainey's mode of operation has suggested to me that he has any other plans with Price other than to try to lock him as the Habs' goalie for the rest of his career, if possible.
wow - not a single Gomez bashing post...has everyone had their morning cup of coffee or something? :)
Ok ok, here's your first Gomez bashing post to make you feel better :)
If Pleks finishes with better stats than Gomez and we don't keep him in July, I'll be disappointed because the money being spent on Gomez could have been used to hang on to Plekanec, a player who came up through the ranks and was drafted by Montreal and who I have more invested in as a fan. So my PERSONAL preference would be to have Plekanec over Gomez and nobody can freak out at me for that.
But Plekanec probably wouldn't have even been here if it wasn't for Gomez.
Oh...wait.
Go Habs Go!! "I can't hear what Jeremy (Roenick) is saying because my Stanley Cup rings are in my ears" - Patrick Roy
It's December, so there's no point in worrying about July. Career-ending injuries, players demanding to be traded, rotten poerformance etc could happen, so planning too much for next season is not a good idea.
IF Plekanec can finish in the top 25 scoring derby at the end of the year, he will be able to demand 5M a year. I would think that is quite reasonable by today's standards in the UFA market. Price would probably try and go for a contract that is similar to Fleury's deal.
Depends on the market. Right now, the leading potential UFA's at centre include Plekanec, Olli Jokinen and Patrick Marleau (Marc Savard extended with the Bruins). So there are some good players kicking around to compete for the limited teams with money.
Yeah, I agree with you completely. He's easily on pace to do so. We'll be lucky if we can keep him for only 5M. I can also see Price getting a bump to 4 mil per season assuming he finishes the season strong. Not sure how we'll keep this team under the cap though considering those raises. I'd hate to lose Metropolit (another UFA) but I'm not sure if he'd accept the same contract he has now. I don't think Mara will get re-signed, but Bergeron is a reasonable question mark. I wonder what Metropolit and Bergeron will do when July rolls around or rather what Gainey will do.
I think it's quite possible that once Markov is back, Bergeron is dealt to a contender in the West around the trade deadline for a fourth or fifth round pick. We have (for the most part) appreciated what MAB has brought to the table, but let's face it, he was simply a band-aid solution.
I'm still torn on Metro. A great guy to have around, but if his asking price is too high, I think Pyatt could easily step up and replace his minutes. Every dollar saved could go towards providing legitimate secondary scoring.
If anything, they should trade Spacek. I like the guy, but he is old and was never what the Habs needed (a booming left-handed shot on the right point). Bergeron fits the bill and is much, much cheaper.
I disagree on MAB. If he's dealt, who does Markov set up? Getting MAB is the closest thing Nob has done to fixing the Souray/Streit losses....and he's way cheaper. If anything, I see MAB playing on the 4th line and the point on the PP with Markov.
Go Habs Go!! "I can't hear what Jeremy (Roenick) is saying because my Stanley Cup rings are in my ears" - Patrick Roy
i say we package hammer and pacek to contender at the dead line its about time we bring the young guys from the dogs, spatch and hammer will free up 8 million, mara will prolly be gone so 9 million.. we keep MAB(lets not repeat the streit dilemma), sign price sign pleks,get rid of goemz in summer and sign markov and a get the big centre we always wanted(err..Horton!)
.::moen for captain::.
Not too easy to "get rid of Gomez".
Go Habs Go!! "I can't hear what Jeremy (Roenick) is saying because my Stanley Cup rings are in my ears" - Patrick Roy
If things continue to go well, Habs owe Hamrlik.
Loyalty is very important for team confidence, period.
Teams and championships take years to build and you cannot do that with players deemed disposable.
You cannot throw away vets without taking a big hit to team morale.
These guys skip past the fear of being dumped and become contemptuous.
"You cannot throw away vets without taking a big hit to team morale."
Tell that to Buillon, Higgins and Koivu.
------------------------"Let this be a reminder that this organization will not tolerate failure." Dr. Evil
Business is Business, If Hamrlik ends up playing out his contract here with us, I have no problem with resining him at like a 2.5mill a year! But I much rather trade him in the offseason, and use that money on another younger D-man. During the offseason, there was a rumor that would send Hamrlik to Jackets for Klesa, but the jackets wouldnt take it unless we took Torres. Hamrlik for Klesa would have been perfect!
What is the most accurate source for NHL salaries and available cap space?
------------------------"Let this be a reminder that this organization will not tolerate failure." Dr. Evil
Thank you all for your input. It looks like the concensus is nhlnumbers.com.
------------------------"Let this be a reminder that this organization will not tolerate failure." Dr. Evil
I honestly don't know if there is one definitive one.
Looks like Stubbs got his numbers from http://www.nhlnumbers.com - I use this a lot for quick looks at things.
There's also http://www.nhlscap.com - hockeybuzz.com, Eklund's site, has some interest in it. Jay Leach is still listed on the team there, so could be stale.
and finally... I haven't used this much at all, but a ton of people swear by it because I think it lets you do more "play the GM": http://www.capgeek.com . That site has actually broken trades before.
/\\ike
GO HABS GO!
Further to that last link, check THIS out:
http://www.capgeek.com/cap_calculator.php?Team=2
You can actually remove players, add external players, factor in AHL call-ups, it shows you entry-level deals, tells you 35+ deals, etc. etc. Good stuff. You can also change the cap itself to play out scenerios.
/\\ike
GO HABS GO!
I'd say nhlnumbers.com. It's pretty much always up to date.
I use http://www.nhlnumbers.com/.
Here is my idea sitution for next year, just for fun more than anything. Sign pleck 4 year 16M, Metro 2 year 2m. Trade Both.Kosti, for Nathan Horton. Hamlik gets traded to Dallas in the offseason, we sign Dan Hamhuis or Paval Kubina. Halak Plus OB for Coburn
Cammy-Pleck-Horton
Polouit-Gomez-Gionta
Max-Metro-Moen
Bergeron/Stewart-Laps-Laraque/White, etc
Markov-Coburn
Spacek-Kabina(Hamhuis)
Gill-Georges
7th Weber(Bergeron)
Price
Hedberg
I like Metro ... i dont think he's back because of White ... if you do decide to sign him to a deal ... then maybe you trade a Lapierre ( or a White )
Hamr has to go this season at the deadline ...
I agree, trade the Kost if you can ...
Get Pleks signed to a deal and if it doesnt work, out ..
Try to get MAB signed to a short term deal .. 2 years low money ...
BGL on waivers ...
Gomez ... they get less FA then we do .. I bet you they would take him .. and, he is closest to home he'll ever be.
I think Metro is going to be back, hes been solid every since we got him, White is unproven and ur not going to get anything, Lap can be good on the 4th line, Well if someone we get Horton, and Pleck decides to leave, Horton can play center, and we use the money to sign a RW.
DIDNT YOU HEAR BETTMAN, if the CND Dollar stays high the Cap will go up. OK THEN, get out there and spend. BUY BUY BUY, and I fully expect Boone, Stubbs, Mio, and everyone to use their BONUS money to help us out.
There may be other teams, but only ONE Club De Hockey...
My bonus will buy two rolls of stick tape. If Canadian Tire is having a 2-for-1 sale.
Dave Stubbs
Habs Inside/Out
Sports Columnist/Feature Writer, Montreal Gazette
• On Twitter: twitter.com/habsinsideout1
Everybody suggesting that we must get rid of Hamrlik and his $5 million cap hit, don't forget that he also has to be replaced.
You can't say let's get rid of him so we can resign price,pleks, all the RFA's, and add a backup. You need to add another top 4 if you get rid of Hamrlik.
Hammer has been awesome for us and few teams could claim such a good defender as their number three d-man (which he essentially was in his first two years here). That said, should a number three guy with (at this stage in his career) limited offensive output really be making over 5 million a year?
If we have Markov, Spacek, Gill, Gorges and O'Byrne all locked up for next season, why not let one of Weber/Carle/Subban get the last spot on D? All of them could likely pick up 30ish points over a full season in the NHL, which is more or less what Hamrlik would provide from the second pairing and PP unit. I agree that he provides veteran presence and poise, and has elevated his game tremendously in Markov's absence this year. But I don't think Gainey will be looking to extend Hammer beyond his current contract, and the current cap hit could be better invested elsewhere by the time the summer rolls around.
I've always liked the Hamrlik signing, he brings stability and a veteran's veteran's presence to a hyper defensive corps (somebody has to rein in O'Byrne's dum-dum penalties). Maybe he oughta be the captain until his time here is done.
As much as we all appreciate the yeoman's work he has done in Markov's absence, the Habs will need Hamrlik gone by the season opener in October 2010. Clearing his 5+ million off the books will definitely help resign/extend those who are due raises (namely Price and Plekanec ), provide some extra cash to explore adding a top-six winger...AND a veteran backup goalie who can mentor Price (Roloson for a year, anyone?)
Roloson's a whiner and too old, I'd rather have Patrick Lalime or JS Giguere... but Gigs still thinks he can be a #1.
Why isn't there a captain yet???
Hence why I said Roloson for only a year, then Desjardins can ascend to the backup role. Roloson has international and playoff experience...a guy who has been through the wars, who knows how to carry a team on his shoulders in a playoff run (see: 2005-06 Edmonton Oilers), and he can help Price further develop. Giggy is making 6 million a year and unless he's bought out, the Habs are going nowhere near him. And as you said, he still sees himself as a number one. If we're going the French route, I'd sooner go for Martin Biron than Lalime.
I like Martin Biron, good idea, but I think the Sabres want him back to backup Miller. How about Martin F. Brodeur? When's his Devils contract up?? Thud! Okay, I just came back to Earth. Ouch.
I don't really care what the Cap is but the NHL has to tinker with the cap rules so that more "hockey" trades can happen.
i'd go with pleks 4 years 16 million, and price 3 years 10.5 million.
- let's make it a triple crown: Impacts, Alouettes and now the Canadiens!
Tommy Plekanec, $3.5 million a year for 2 years, that'd keep him hungry and I want to see the little girl he becomes in the playoffs exorcised before committing big money to him.
Carey Price, $4 million a year for 4 years. If he wants the really big money then it would be up to him to take the team to Patrick Roy territory (Satnley Cup wins out of nowhere).
i know price will get 4 a year but when u think of it 4M a year for a guy who hasn't done much in the nhl? it's crazy. and plekz well, i would say 4-5M a year depending on how he finishes.
I agree with the offer to Price, but disagree with what you said about Plecky. He has had good numbers 2 of the last 3 years and can hopefully pull out his 4th straight year with 20 goals.
------------------------"Let this be a reminder that this organization will not tolerate failure." Dr. Evil
If Plex doesn't get his share as a hab, I will lose my mind.
------------------------"Let this be a reminder that this organization will not tolerate failure." Dr. Evil
They'll be fine. Just make sure Plek and Price are locked up for a few years. I suggest 2 years for Plek, 5 years for Price.
Probably disagree on Price, but we have no other goalie right now with Halak wanting out. Lock em up. I really don't want to see a Price/halak less habs going into the future.
I thought I heard on cbc that it was going down to 55?
if its down to 55 that isn't exactly dramatic