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You be the gm
posted by Mike Boone at 20h18 EST on Aug 4
As of today, these are the players the Canadiens have signed for the 2009-'10 season, along with their salaries:
Andrei Kostitsyn: $3.25 million
Georges Laraque: $1.5 million
Sergei Kostitsyn: $816,667
Maxim Lapierre: $687,500
Andrei Markov: $5.75 million
Roman Hamrlik: $5.5 million
Josh Gorges: $1.1 million
Ryan O'Byrne: $941,667
Carey Price: $2.2 million
Jaroslav Halak: $775,000
For salary cap calculation, the Canadiens have committed $22,520,834 for 2009-'10.
These are the players who will become UFAs unless they sign before July 1, 2009, along with their current salaries:
Alex Tanguay ($5.25 million)
Saku Koivu ($4.75 million)
Alex Kovalev ($4.5 million)
Steve Bégin ($1.057 million)
Tom Kostopoulos ($900,000)
Francis Bouillon ($1.875 million)
Mathieu Dandenault ($1.725 million)
Mike Komisarek ($1.7 million)
Players who will become RFAs:
Christopher Higgins ($1.7 million)
Tomas Plekanec ($1.6 million)
Kyle Chipchura ($942,800)
Guillaume Latendresse ($850,000)
OK, you're Bob Gainey. You've got about $33.5 million to allocate, but you want to hold some back for free agents, trades, promotions from within the system, etc.
Whom do you sign? For how much? For how long?
Begin number-crunching ... and don't peek at anyone else's answers.
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I think Komisarek's gonna want at least 6. Consistently among league leaders in shots blocked and hits.
Koivu-UFA 2-3yrs 9-13.5mil, 4.5mil per
Kovalev-UFA 2yrs 10mil, 5mil per
Tanguay-UFA 4yrs 20mil, 5mil per
Komi-UFA 5yrs 25mil, 5mil per
Begin or Kostop-UFA(pick one) 1yr 1.25mil
Cube-UFA sorry, but no room
Dandi-UFA seeya
Pleks-RFA 4yrs 16mil, 4mil per
Higgins-RFA 3yrs 9mil, 3mil per
Chipchura-RFA 3yrs 4.5mil, 1.5per
Lentendresse-RFA replace him with MAX PAC
29.25 mil for next year leaving us 4.25 short of the present day cap. If the cap moves up another 6 mil will have more then enough to make moves with all our players signed. I gave Pleks and Higgins lower then market value(RYDER got 4mil per) becuase they are restricted but i may be wrong. I believe Komi still may get more. If we must expend one player, I choose Tanguay. We had great chemistry last year without him and he's done nothing for us yet. I personally believe he's overrated as he has never scored more then 30 goals however people are ready to give 6mil per. I just cant drop Kovi or Koivu. As for Lentendresse, my prediction of the year is that he will finish this year in Hamilton.
ESPN's Ranks NHL Coaches...
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/columns/story?columnist=frei_terry&id=3515...
Actually this site is better...
http://www.fantasyhockeyscouts.com/2008/07/coach-rankings.html?cid=12528...
"If I wanted to hear from an ass, I would fart..."
i hope we dont give out any more 3-year contracts anymore or else it'll be like the next off season everyones free agents
I believe there are certain core players that we absolutely must keep and there are some role players that we can substitute with our talented prospects.
This is the core:
Koivu - our leader and he can't leave without a Cup ($4.5M for 3 years)
Kovalev - game breaker ($4.5M for 2yrs - can't be paid more than Koivu)
Komisarek - our Regehr ($4M for 5 years)
Higgy - great 2 way player and leader ($3 for 4 or 5 years ... could be more if he breaks 30 this year)
Plekanec - skilled 2 way center ($4M for 5yrs)
Alex Tanguay ($5.25 million) - unless he takes a discount let him walk. Pac Man will replace him.
Steve Bégin ($1.057 million) - Love the guy as he brought a Calder Cup to Saint John, but gotta give the kids a chance and we need more speed.
Tom Kostopoulos ($900,000) - bring on the kids.
Francis Bouillon ($1.875 million) - too many young D-men in the system to keep the cube. Thanks for your dedication!
Mathieu Dandenault ($1.725 million) - C-ya!
Players who will become RFAs:
Kyle Chipchura ($942,800) - should be easy to sign at a modest increase and center our 3rd or 4th line ... future captain. Not to mention he is a good buddy of Carey's so we need him to keep our Franchise happy. ($1.5M for 3yrs)
Guillaume Latendresse ($850,000) - hmmmm ... we'll see. Unless he breaks out this year he should be easy to keep for $1.5M for the next 3 years and play a 3rd line role.
I hope Bob can keep the core together. They are all character guys that will stay for a chance at a Cup and will take a discount knowing that they have that chance in Montreal.
I've just spent $23M on 7 guys. If Tanguay works out then he may be worth keeping, but there will be prospects ready to take the next step by next season. The extra cash would be better to spend on a game breaking player or 2. Hopefully that extra $7M will already be assigned to Mats.
I agree with most, but I think if Kovalev even comes close to replicating last year, then we will need to pay him more than 4.5 million. I don't think Koivu's salary has anything to do with Kovalev. Tanguay, Hamrlik and Markov are already paid more than him, so it would be a huge deal if Kovalev did. Plus, Koivu in theory could be our "3rd" line center (If Mats signs), so we need to pay our first line Rw more than our 2nd or 3rd line center. I also think Higgins could get more than 3 million.
Good points on Kovalev and Koivu. Higgy totally depends on whether he can get over the 30 goal hump this year. Could be really expensive if he does, but he is still an RFA so it would take an offer sheet to steal him away. I'm sure Snowman will be taking a big time run at Komisarek and Higgins though if he has the chance!!
As for those who think the Cap will go lower. No way. Yes some of the Arenas are half empty, BUT that does not reflect on the whole story. I've been to 10 games in DC and the capacity is 18,000. The place really is half empty, yet last season they recorded 15,500 average. The tickets are sold but the people don't come. Many season ticket holders, company tickets. PAID FOR, but no show. As for weak dollar, the teams are paying out in USD, taking in the same weak USD. Overseas television right help us out. I don't see how that affects the CAP... A better network TV deal, and we will see raises for alot of years to come.
If the NHL hasn't gotten a favourable deal with a US tv network despite trying for 25 years +, what makes you think that is going to change. More people there watch darts over hockey. In fact, any other sport over hockey.
Gilbert
2008/09 is the season of the Habs
The NHL will NEVER, EVER get a network TV deal comparable to other sports in the U.S. Why do you think Barry Melrose finally came back to coaching? He was the freakin' hockey analyst on a station (ESPN) that shows no hockey. Hell, he was as out of place on ESPN as a porno reviewer on the Hallmark Channel.
Hockey is shown more in the USA than SOCCER. Yet David Beckham can get 50 million a year from LA??? But when you exchange that he doesnt get too many Pounds. FORTUNATELY HE LIVES IN THE USA...
Usually the darts come from England. If salaries have been going up for the last 25 years. How can the current weak dollar affect our CAP? And the TV deal is the least of my argument...
Darts is pretty cool to watch, they really put on a nice show the commentators and all that. The sport I cant watch is basketball.
If you're not into basketball, my advice is to watch the NCAA Tourney in March. If that doesn't get you going, I'm afraid nothing will.
darts has no hot girls watching.
In order of importance
Alex Tanguay 3 years 5.4, 5.7, 6
Mike Komisarek 4 years 3.6, 3.8, 3.8, 4.2
Alex Kovalev 1 year 4.5
Saku Koivu 2 years 3.8, 3.2
Tom Kostopoulos 2 years 1.4, 1.8
Steve Bégin 2 years 1.3, 1.3
Francis Bouillon Hopefully trade this season, or thank you
Mathieu Dandenault Hopefully trade this season, or thank you
Tomas Plekanec 4 years 3.4, 4.0, 4.0, 4.6
Christopher Higgins 3 years 3.2, 3.6, 3.6
Kyle Chipchura 2 years 1.2, 1.6
Guillaume Latendresse 2 years 1.2, 1.6
Total 30 million vs the cap
*Estimate 3-4 million who wont accept this and will walk.
leaving us with 3-7 in money to sign free agents,trades, promotion in the system. Let us not forget the CAP will raise AGAIN...
* It doesn't just work out cause you write it down on paper. Some of these guys will have better than anticipated seasons, and some will not. Thats just the beginning of the functions that will calculate into this.
Gainey needs to get a top 4th D man, and another center in order to be considered cup potential.
Here's a trip down memory lane, to an era none of us recall, LOL!
1910-11, when the team salary cap was $5,000 and players held out for an extra hundreds bucks.
http://wwwrealitycheckeyesontheprize.blogspot.com/2008/08/1910-11.html
There are two ways to look at next year's situation: One, you can keep a lot of the safer veterans at the expense of one high priced free agent, or you can (in theory) try to keep all the high priced free agents at the expense of the safe vets.
The first theory means you only have to insert one or maybe two young players into the lineup next year that aren't on the team already, but they may have to play a prominent role. For example, Max Pacioretty would be asked to play a lot of Alex Tanguay's minutes, but you've kept guys like Begin, Kostopolous, and Bouillon to shore up depth spots. The second theory is based on keeping the high end talent, but surrounding the team with cheap inexperienced players like Greg Stewart, Matt D'Agostini, and Pavel Valentenko in the 4th line roles.
I assume the second theory is the more popular one here, given the faith everyone (including management) has in the team's scouting and development. But there are a lot of teams that would be better off going with the first theory.
Given our situation, goodbye to Bouillon, Begin, Dandenault, and Kostopolous. Let's start negotiating with Komisarek before training camp and work from there.
Even in this second theory, it may come down to keeping only two of Tanguay, Koivu, and Higgins, but you never know how much cap room is available. I can't really predict what those 3 will ask for.
saskhab - interesting thoughts. I also agree with Robert's reply to your post about trying to sign some guys before we get to next summer and find ourselves with our backs up against the wall. I believe Gainey doesn't like to negotiate during the season but with so many guys up for renewal he may have to change his thinking for this year. Everyone here seems to be assuming that it will be Tanguay that goes in make room for Pakman but I wouldn't discount the notion that it might be Higgins. Rumour had it that he would have gone in the Sundin trade so he's certainly not untouchable. Let's apply the order of operations to see who needs to be signed first.
1. Komisarek - UFA, we just can't let him go. #1 priority.
2. Koivu - UFA, need to have a heart to heart talk over his role (now and in the future) and an appropriate salary.
3. Tanguay - UFA, may want to sign at a reasonable rate to stay and build a life in Montreal
4. Pleks - RFA, if Sundin doesn't arrive then we can't let this guy sign an offer sheet. Can wait until the summer.
5. Higgins - RFA, see what he does in his breakout year although icetime will be an issue on LW. Wait until the summer and if we lose him to another team via a mega offer sheet then we take the picks and move on. I'm not bareaking the bank for this guy.
6. Kovalev - UFA, he needs the motivation, don't sign him until the summer and then only for a few years. If he balks, then he walks. AK46 moves to RW and we re-sign both Higgins and Tanguay.
7. Lats - RFA, see what he can do on RW this year on the 3rd line. Should be able to be signed in the summer for a very reasonable rate.
8. Carey Price - RFA in 2010, Believe it or not, but this time next year we will be in a position to sign him long term. Two summers from now, another team can break the bank and tempt him with an off the wall offer sheet. We need to always keep that reality in mind when we are budgeting for the next two years and handing out long term contracts to other players.
The Original 24 Cups
24 - Nice post but there is one thing i got to point out that everybody seems to ignore and that's the agent. The agent not only negotiates the players contract but in most cases his firm has a big hand in his investments , endorsements etc. and pretty well runs the player's financial life so the player really is influenced by him and i am not talking about Ryder's agent Thane Tumbleweed Campbell. Put yourself in the shoes of an agent for once. Would you want to sign a contract at mid season and make nice pacos or wait till after July 1st when the market may dictate a substantial increase in salary and mega pacos in your pocket , they are not stupid. Most contracts that are signed at mid season are originated by the player who is happy with his situation and not cuz Bob the God does or doesn't sign players at mid season ( Saku's contract ). The GM reserves the right to have this player in his future plans , of course. Bob doesn't control the agents even though some of you think he has saintly powers and this wasn't meant for you Steve ( 24 Cups ). It's a two way street. Have a good day.
Bryan - Somebody had to say it and I'm glad you did. Everybody enjoys there summer holiday at Disney World but eventually we all have to come back home to reality.
As I keep saying, be careful when purchasing a new Habs' uniform this season.
The Original 24 Cups
Steve - The new uniforms are ordered before the trade is faxed into league offices , what a racket. Another thing , i love how everybody is dishing off Begin , Tommy K. etc. and their great big salaries and we will probably end up with AK46 and Lats as our top penalty killer unit, lol.
Bryan
Some people obviously overlook the importance of character players. You can't win anything important without them.
Lapierre, Chipchura, Higgins, Plekanec, Koivu, Kovalev... all these guys can kill penalites. Begin & Kostopolous are not even terribly gifted PK guys.
No one is suggesting the Kostitsyns or Latendresse to replace their role on the team.
Bryan
I'm glad someone finally pointed that out at the 140th post. I guess that officially makes you the GM.
Jim M - Does that mean i get a rocking chair?
Bryan
Hell, we'll get you a vibrating lazy boy if you like.
I wouldn't worry too much about Price's contract at this point. For sure, we want to keep ourselves flexible long term, but let's wait to see in two years how good he actually is relative to the rest of the team, and other goaltenders in the league.
Same goes with Sergei Kostitsyn, who will also be a RFA in 2011, and may be a very highly desired player as well.
In 2011, Hamrlik and Markov will be playing out the final years of their big contracts, and while I expect Markov to still be a high level blueliner beyond 2012, Hamrlik will be 37, Kovalev will be 38, and Koivu will be 36. We'll be moving on from relying on those guys by then. Maybe not for the 2010-2011 campaign, but within a year or two we'll have to move on.
Our team will, for various reasons, look fairly different in two offseasons.
You raise a very good point in bringing up Price;s situation but, we can always trade players under contract. In the case of a player playing to potential this increases their trade value as the receiving team knows they will not lose them immediately to free agency. In other words sign all the elements we want/can next year for responsible lengths and if we have to move someone the next summer to accommodate Price's new contract do it in summer 2010.