41 Games - By The Numbers

posted by Chris Aung-Thwin at 21h39 EST on Dec 29


39197167_gold.jpg

The 2009-2010 Montreal Canadiens.

Gold or garbage?

 

Back at the beginning of this season most pundits, analysts, and fans didn’t know how to evaluate this year’s team. Oh, we’ll need to give them 20 games to gel. Some prognosticators did admit that GM Bob Gainey had upgraded an aging line-up with younger, more consistent and more durable players. And even though that aging roster had made the playoffs two years in a row and had been first in the Eastern Conference in 2007-08, many considered this “upgraded” team a mere assembly of parts.

 

At best they’d be an 8th place team. At worst they’d be in the running for the draft lottery.

 

So - 41 games later - are we in a position to accurately gauge this team? Not really. Andrei Markov, the Habs best player, was lost for almost 3 months during the first game of the season. His absence severely handicapped the Canadiens play in every situation. Because of his injury (and Ryan O'Byrne's), Gainey was forced to sign Marc-Andre Bergeron to bring some defensive depth (sort of) and especially to help on the powerplay. As injured blueliners continued to pile-up, Gainey had to make more moves (hello Jay Leach) and hope and pray that the patchwork would hold up.

 

It did.

 

The Habs are currently 7th in the Eastern Conference and can easily jump into 5th with a few more wins. We're in pretty good shape.

A look at some of the numbers that have made up the Canadiens first 41 games, the reasons why we sit in 6th and what we need to do to improve.



POINTS

Tomas Plekanec is currently in 7th place in the National Hockey League for points. He has 36 assists, behind only San Jose’s Joe Thornton. We’ve been dying for an offensive star.

Well, we’ve got one and he’s homegrown.

 

Mike Cammalleri isn’t doing so bad himself, sitting with 35 points at 30th in league scoring. He has 19 goals (11th – NHL) and is on pace for about 38. With Andrei Kostitsyn waking up from his lumber and a secondary scoring line coming together, the Habs will be a much more dangerous offensive threat in 2010.

 

PRODUCTION

Pleks earns a point for every 18:42 of ice-time. Roaring back from injury, Markov’s production is second amongst the Habs at 19:28. Cammy also sits with the NHL’s top 50 producers, earning a point around every 22:46 of ice-time. Marc-Andre Bergeron – that forced signing – contributes to the Habs offense every 26:24, making him more productive than guys like Phil Kessel and John Tavares.

 

Other notables producers

Andrei Kostitsyn- 24:01

Glen Metropolit- 27:31

Brian Gionta- 29:31

Scott Gomez- 30:32 (producing just above Alexander Frolov and one-time Hab Robert Lang)

 

With these guys putting up consistent points, we’d be expecting them to get enough ice-time to contribute. The Habs top 3 for average time-on-ice (ATOI), however, are Roman Hamrlik (24:31), Andrei Markov (22:43), and Josh Gorges (21:47). We don’t even have one forward in the top 100 for ATOI. Brian Gionta, who missed 21 games, averages 20:40. Tomas Plekanec, who is one of the leagues top scorers, is 136th for ATOI (20:05) – and we all know that too many of those minutes come when the Canadiens are short-handed.

 

SPECIAL TEAMS


The Habs have been a man down 183 times – the most in the NHL. In contrast, the league’s least penalized team (New Jersey) has been short-handed only 111 times – a difference of 144 minutes (that’s over 7 periods of short-handed hockey). The Canadiens have taken 200 minors (second only to Philly), 38 of them tripping penalties (1st-NHL) and 29 of them for holding (1st-NHL). For a team that’s supposed to be built on puck possession, that’s a heckuva lot of penalties. Luckily, the Habs have a solid PK. They’re T-16th for powerplay goals against (28) and sit 8th overall with a PK efficiency of 84.2%.

 

On the flipside, the Habs have a tremendous PP. The NHL’s number 1 unit converts on 25% of opportunities (30/120). Unfortunately, the team sits 30th for powerplay opportunities (120). In case you were wondering, Pittsburgh has had the most chances with the man-advantage (169, or 98 more minutes). That’s a lot of time to play more 5-on-5 hockey and combine that with the extra 144 minutes being a man-down and the Habs are looking like a pretty worn down team.

 

It’s hard to say why there is such a disparity in powerplay opportunities for-and-against. Looking at all of those hooking and tripping calls might indicate that we’re under-sized or late getting to the puck. Surprisingly, our quick and skilled players aren’t drawing many penalties against other teams. A grinder and defenseman lead that category: Maxim Lapierre and Jaroslav Spacek each have 9 penalties drawn. Scott Gomez has drawn 8, Josh Gorges and Max Pacioretty, 7; and Plekanec only 4.

 

It doesn’t help that two of our biggest (physically) free-agent signings get called the most for infractions: Paul Mara has 44 PIM; Hal Gill 43 PIM.

 

LITTLE THINGS

 

We have a lot of shot blockers (Roman Hamrlik – 90; Gorges – 85; Spacek; 77) but not a lot of hitters – Travis Moen has 87 (37th – NHL), Lapierre has 72 (68th) and Andrei Kostitsyn has 67 (84th). If we’re not hitting, you’d at least hope that we were getting shots on goal, but Mike Cammalleri is the Habs only player in the top 100 (131 SOG – 12th). Plekanec has 87 (102nd – NHL) and AK46 has shot the puck on net 82 times (121st – NHL).

 

...

So we’re doing some things well but other things not well enough. Our skilled guys need more ice-time. Give our top two lines an extra few shifts every night and we might just see some additional offense. A little extra discipline in our zone will help reduce our time on the PK, ease the burden on guys like Pleks and give them to expel that energy in the offensive zone.

 

SURPRISES

 

Glen Metropolit is our 6th leading scorer (19). What could be more surprising than that? Well, how about Marc-Andre Bergeron being our 5th leading scorer (21)? And who would’ve thought that Travis Moen would already have 7 goals by mid-season?

 

Max Lapierre, last season’s most consistent and defensively responsible forward, has a -10 (+/-) rating. Off-season acquisition Paul Mara is -11. Mike Cammalleri, who earned his keep in Calgary on the powerplay, only has 3 PPG.

 

The Habs have the most lethal powerplay (25%) but are 8th in powerplay goals (30).

 

Kyle Chipchura has 2 goals in 11 games for the Ducks and Guillaume Latendresse has 6 goals in 14 games for the Wild.

 

Georges Laraque averages 5:53/game and still doesn’t have a goal as a Montreal Canadien. Carey Price leads the team with 26 starts, but Jaroslav Halak leads the team with 10 wins, a save percentage of 0.924 and a GAA of 2.56.

 

 

The Habs may have lacked consistency, blueline depth and secondary scoring for most of the season but somehow they have managed to stay competitive. After 41 games, the Habs are playing .500 hockey. Is that good enough to make the playoffs? Probably not, but now they have Markov and Brian Gionta back. The Habs have rope-a-doped their way to 7th in the East. They’ve been jabbed, hooked, and cut above the eye but have never gone down.

 

Now it’s their turn to hit back.

 

Bring on Round 2.


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Comments

Highspeed969's picture

Thanks for the post Chris! Keep up the great work!


Very informative piece.  I would like to know which hab came stubbling out of the box, after a PP goal was scored on us, the most times.  In other words, whose the Canadien we don't want to see gliding over to the sin bin after a call?

------------------------"Let this be a reminder that this organization will not tolerate failure." Dr. Evil


Chris Aung-Thwin's picture

That's an interesting stat to try and track down... I'd also be interested in who has the most goals for the Habs when coming out of the box (say on a breakaway) ...


MikeL's picture

I've always been of the opinion that if, for example, we are assessed a bench minor, and the coach needs to pick someone, why don't they pick they fastest skater who won't be on the PK anyways? It always boggled my mind when Carbo used to make Gui! serve those bench minors, when he is the slowest player on the team.


Neil's picture

Doesn't someone that was on the ice when the bench penalty occured have to serve the penalty?  Or am I mistaking that with the rule states that when a penalty shot is awarded because a player grabbed the puck in the crease the coach has to pick a player that was on the ice at the time to shoot?


Chris Aung-Thwin's picture

I'm pretty sure anyone can serve it.


Habsrule1's picture

Excellent article Chris. It's nice to read some sanity after so many doom & gloom posts recently.

I think there is a lot to be excited about with this team. If we stay healthy, we should finish 5th or 6th.

Go Habs Go!! "I can't hear what Jeremy (Roenick) is saying because my Stanley Cup rings are in my ears" - Patrick Roy


likehoy's picture

hooking, tripping, holding..

JM must still think he's coaching in the pre-lockout years....

- let's make it a triple crown: Impacts, Alouettes and now the Canadiens!


Chris Aung-Thwin's picture

It seems that at least once per game I've been having a major disagreement with Martin... there's been several times when the fourth line will play for 30-35 sconds and then get a whistle... instead of swapping them up JM lets them stay on and boom! some guy gets by Laraque and pots one... JM seems to be having a hard time adjusting to the "new" game...

 

puck possesion philosophy and then 5 straight games of 600 shots against? Something ain't adding up.


24 Cups's picture

Chris - I like the boxing analogy at the end of your article.  All things considered, we are in decent shape moving forward into the 2nd half.


Chris Aung-Thwin's picture

Thanks Steve (and thanks for pimpin' the blog)... I know that you have your reservations about this team (and about management) but these guys are giving me some good vibrations.


Ive never really put together the pk numbers together in such a way. 7 periods of shorthanded hockey is no way to win games. We have to find penalty killers that arent on our top lines. Thats what third liners are for. Pleks is getting worn out and consequently cant finish the game strong.

It would be more productive if Lapierre could step up his game but im losing faith in him. Josh Gorges is a fine defenceman but would never log minutes with a top team.

Players like this eat minutes but seldom produce anything. They are stop-gap players.


Former Jets Fan's picture

Actually, the 7 periods is the *difference* between the most and least penalized teams.  The Canadiens` actual total time shorthanded in terms of periods is far more grim-sounding - 18 periods (approx.), or a bit less than a half-period per game.  Yikes!

Agreed about about who should be killing those penalties.  I guess Lapierre just hasn`t earned his coach`s trust as yet, despite his success in that role last season.  On the other hand though, the formula is clearly working - 84% is a great rate, and our top PK guy/leading scorer has shown no signs of slowing down.  We`ll see how he feels and how he plays after the Olympics.  Maybe the Czechs will get knocked out early (sorry Tomas).


Chris Aung-Thwin's picture

Yeah, what's up with Lapierre? He should be the first guy out on the ice for the PK... at least, that's an important reason why I thought he was being played to play hockey...

 

I'm thinking that the Czechs will be weak in the back end (really surprised - but glad - Hammer wasn't selected)... not sure if they'll be the same threat as they have been in previous years.


That is a thoughtful look Chris. I think it may be optimistic a bit. I see the Habs at 7th today, with most other teams in their conference holding a couple games in hand, in fact a couple below them are above .500 and holding games in hand. The Habs might be really about 12th, but with injured players coming back. Then again they have always melted at sometime during the last six seasons.

The TOI figures are important, especially towards the end of the season when a lot of players get worn down. Give a good player 27 minutes a game, no penalty killing, and his stats are going to climb. (So does his contract:-)Fans and the media hail the new hero and then we all wonder how that hero can be shut down.

 Unfortunately the weakness of third and fourth lines is magnified I think when the minutes are averaged out. A lot of players who get a few goals a year, or just minutes on the PK, begin to look bad when you demand more than just confusing the opposition out of them.

Part of the penalty issue might be the changes. You get the puck, throw it away for a change, and the incoming guys are always chasing the opposition. You start the shift heading towards your own zone and never really recover. I don't know though because it is hard to break shifts down to on the fly or whistle.

Just an opinion.


Chris Aung-Thwin's picture

You know, line changes have been one of my beefs this year... we've seen too many bad line changes and too many bench minors for too many men. Martin has to get that working better.

 

Am I optimistic? You bet. It makes for a better season to hope and praise than nag and rag on the team... if my words had any weight with the team they'd probably get more pointed, but for now, I'm just fine cheering from my couch.

 

I really believe that the team has done well to stay at .500 until now. We had so many injuries (Markov, Hamrlik, O'Byrne, Mara, Gionta, Laraque, D'Agostini, Gomez, Spacek) that this team has yet to play those 20 games as a full and healthy roster to gel. We've got a tough schedule in January, but I have hope that this team will impress.


punkster's picture

Nice work Chris. Looks easy. Cut down on the hooking and tripping, use our speed to draw more penalties and we'll show immediate improvement. Of couse that's way oversimplifying the situation but it sure would help.


Chris Aung-Thwin's picture

As fans, it's our job to oversimplify things. We say do better - and they should!


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