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My God, It's full of Tough Games!
posted by Chris Aung-Thwin at 21h19 EST on Jan 4
While I have faith in the team that GM Bob Gainey has assembled, the road ahead will not be an easy one. The Habs still have 7 (!) sets of back-to-back games, including two sets in a span of only 6 days. Then there's the 4 game road trip to start off the stretch run right after the Olympic break. After facing Boston, the Habs travel out West to square off against the league-leading San Jose Sharks, the very, very good Los Angeles Kings and finally finish the trip off against Saku Koivu's Anaheim Ducks.
Will a disastrous 4-game road trip end hopes of the post-season? No way. The most important games will be the 11 remaining against divisional rivals: Boston (4 games), Ottawa (3), Toronto (2), and Buffalo (2).
JANUARY
Jan.03 vs BUF - L (1-0)
Jan.05@ WAS
Jan.07 vs FLO
Jan.09 vs NJ
Jan.14 vs DAL
Jan.16 vs OTT
Jan.17 @ NYR
Jan.20 vs STL
Jan.22 @NJ
Jan.23 vs NYR
Jan.26 @ FLO
Jan.27 @ TB
Jan.30 @ OTT
Highlights: Four straight home games from Jan.07 to Jan.16.
Lowlights: Four straight home games from Jan.07 to Jan.16. Three (!) sets back to back games (including 2 sets where on the second day we play the Rangers). Playing Washington, New Jersey twice, and Ottawa in the afternoon will all be tough, tough games. The worst stretch will be playing St-Louis in Montreal on the 20th, flying to New Jersey for the 22nd, flying back home to face the Rangers on the 23rd, then flying down to Florida to square off against the Panthers and the Bolts.
Key: Win at home.
FEBRUARY
Feb.02 vs VAN
Feb.04 @ BOS
Feb.06 vs PIT
Feb.07 vs BOS
Feb.10 vs WAS
Feb.12 @ PHI
Feb.13 vs PHI
Highlights: Having only 7 games in the month, including 5 at home. Two weeks off during the Olympic break for greybeards Roman Hamrlik and Jaroslav Spacek and role players like Travis Moen and Max Lapierre. We'll probably still be dealing with a couple nagging injuries so 17 days off to heal will be nice.
Lowlights: Having 7 games versus Vancouver, Boston (2), Pittsburgh, Washington, and Philly (2). Ouch. Oh, and 2 sets of back-to-backers.
Key: Win at home.
MARCH
Mar.02 @ BOS
Mar.04 @ SJ
Mar.06 @ LA
Mar.07 @ ANA
Mar.09 @ TB
Mar.11 vs EDM
Mar.13 vs BOS
Mar.16 @ NYR
Mar.20 @ TOR
Mar.22 vs OTT
Mar.24 @ BUF
Mar.25 vs FLO
Mar.27 vs NJ
Mar.31 vs CAR
Highlights: An even split of home/away games (7/7). Six games against (probably, maybe) sub-.500 teams. A busy month but with some decent time to rest.
Lowlights: Four very tough road games to start the month.
Key: Win at (you guessed it) home. March features 5 games against divisional rivals and we're going to have to take the ones at home (Boston, Ottawa) and win two more on the road (Boston to start the month and Toronto midway through). Splitting that 4-game road trip (bookend wins against Boston and Anaheim would be nice).
APRIL
Apr.02 @ PHI
Apr.03 vs BUF
Apr.06 @ NYI
Apr.08 @ CAR
Apr.10 vs TOR
Highlights: A chance to play 4 teams that currently sit (triple emphasis on currently) at, or near, the bottom of the Conference.
Lowlights: 3 of 5 on the road. And what's worse is one of our only 2 home games will be the second game of our back-to-backer. Against Buffalo. It's going to come down to the wire for us and playing the Leafs in the last game of the season might actually decide it. I don't know if (1) my heart can survive going through that, again, and (2) whether or not Habs fans, the city of Montreal and the province of Quebec would be able to not completely go ballistic if our post-season hopes are ruined by Toronto, again.
Key: Whatever happens, beat Toronto.
With 45 points in the bank and 38 games remaining, the Habs still have a decent shot at making the playoffs. 94 points is a reasonable rough estimate for how many points will be required to squeak into 8th and final spot.
We'll need: 49 points.
We can do that straight up with 25 wins (say, 25-13); with an unlikely 11-0-27 record or, more realistically, by going 21-10-7. That means we only really have to win 4 more games than we lose. It's hard to predict how many OT points there will be, but last season we finished with 11 OT losses (as did Ottawa; Toronto had 13, Boston 10). So estimating that we'll finish with a record of 42-30-10 isn't unrealistic.
Looking back through the schedule, I'm pessimistically putting down more L's than W's and we can still hit 94 points with a second half record of 18-10-10 (39-30-13 for the season). That's being pessimistic. I know we can do better.
Am I crazy?
"I'm completely operational, and all my circuits are functioning perfectly."
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I have every confidence in the mission Dave.
Space Odyssey:2001 & 2010 are two of my favourite movies. Thanks for the flashback. I guess the only question is what is the Habs' monolith and what meaning does it have in terms of our future destiny?
If the planets align anything can happen. Hey, Switzerland beat Russia....
Now, open the pod bay doors Hal. Open the pod bay doors Hal... Hal?
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This concludes our broadcast. Goodnight.
Swiss Goalie played like Patrick Roy on steroids, making 50 save and going to overtime. Huge undeserved win.
No you are not crazy. This is a sport, anything can happen.
The absolute biggest plus so far has been that the team learned they can almost play .500 (at least) with Markov out. They did that with beaucoup changes. Admidst confusion they can play .500. So if you're a player on the team maybe you will ask what the team is capable of. Every team gets hot and cold. If the team can play .500 cold what can it do hot, with a little faith in each other and self confidence?
No you are not crazy. Perhaps though this is not the best time for you to make major life decisions. Just sayin.
Maybe I'll let HIO members make those major life decisions for me ;)
Yeah, Feb will be t-o-u-g-h. 8/14 would be something to put in the bank... We just have to win a few more games than we lose and we'll make the playoffs. I think the Habs aren't necessarily a great regular season team but might have it in them to be a darkhorse in the playoffs. We have leadership, grit, offensive weapons, good special teams, experienced D-men and two goalies who can turn it on and steal games... as long as it all comes together at the right time we've got a chance to do some damage.
Last thing. I know this might sound far fetched but IF and I say IF the Thrashers are somehow not able to sign Kovalchuk, man I would love to see Gainey(if he is not gone by then) go for this one. This what I have in mind; before draft day Gainey makes a huge splash. Like Sutter, we trade for his rights (that's if are able to get a deal in place like Sutter did). We give up Gomez, the brothers, Hamrlik (he is just too pricey), 1st round and 2nd round of 2010. Now I know this sounds LUDACRIOUS, but come on. Who doesn't want a Kovalchuk next to a Plecks and Cammy. It makes perfect sense on our side. Pick up a solid 2nd line center in FA (Jokinen for cheap? for Gio and Pouliot... that;s the only name that comes to me. Frolov too, but not a center.
We give up Gomez who has a big contract and can't perform to that level and we get almost probably a 10 million dollar contract in Kovalchuk who can easily pot in 45-50 goals with an up and coming star in Plecks. We get rid of the brothers and the 5.5 million dollar contract of Hamrlik. We would actually end up saving on our end. And have room to sign(if not already signed) Plecks. I know it sounds good...haha. Ah dreams can come true. Just do it Gainey, just do it.
I have the HABS tattooed on my heart
Couple of things that I'd like to point out;
We have the leadership in a few key players like Gio, Gomez and Gill who have one Cups quite recently. I hope the specials do continue to play like they are. Recently our offensive weapons have been quite cold (Cammy, Plecks and don't blame it on the fact that AK is not in the line-up...Great players are able to adjust to line mates being absent. The D-men needs to step up...yes even Markov, the points are great but I'd like to see more oumph from him (you know what I'm saying?).
I would love to see Spacek play like he did with Buffalo. He was a shut-down defenceman for them. Yes, I know he has aged by a couple years but we are not asking him to play against the Ovies and the Crosbys night in and night out. Simply to play solid on the 2nd or 3rd pairing which, IMO, he hasn't. And i don't think anyone should blame the goalies because they have been playing great of QUITE SOME TIME (maybe a few odd games that they weren't...but who hasn't right?)
I do think there are deeper problems with the teams moral. I don't know about you Chris, and I'm quite new to the site, but JM is not the coach for this team. I've always thought Hartley would be the top candidate in the off-season but Gainey decided otherwise. He has more credentials than Martin including a Cup. They (the players) might seem all happy but I know there is something going on (either it's the on-going trade saga or the goalie controversy) but there is definitely something going on here.
On a completely different note, like I said I am pretty new, but I've always asked myself what has Gainey thinking when he thought of building the team via free agency/trades. I don't think any of the signings were good for this team except for Moen (is that weird?) and maybe Cammy (great leadership). I truly and deeply believe that Gainey had/has 1 out left and so he went all out. Do you know where I am coming from? This is the scenario I had in mind...I know it's late to talk about this, but it is always lingering in the back of my mind when I watch this team play.
REBUILDING MODE....Gainey should've traded the brothers for a higher draft pick. I was thinking to the Sens for their 9th pick. Their pick was Cowan (6'7 and very much like Myers) If he did do something like that, our defence would looked quite impressive in a few years (Markov/Cowan, Gorges/O'Byrne, Weber (Carle)/Subban) Gotta love the looks of that no?!. We all know defense is very important. And obviously not re-signing anyone was a good move. They were finished in MTL anyways. Our offence is our problem and has been for like 12 years now...
We all know that no one was/is ready to make the jump from Hamilton. Now that's a different problem. I can't remember one IMPACT player that has been taken out of the draft. TRUE? AK, Price, Plecks (Leblanc looks promising but he has 3 years minimum before he makes the jump) have been the best to come out of the draft since 2000. That's really the only players that I can remember. Correct me if I'm wrong.
And this is why Gainey did what he did. He saw that he had not a lot of talent coming out of Hamilton. I don't care if they(AHL) are having a good season. It doesn't change the fact that our future is jeopardized. And right now it's the reality there is no impact player ready in the near future. Listen I love the Habs and have since I'm 5 (13 years now). And I hate to say but Gainey made a huge mistake this off-season. I know it's a long comment Chris and I truly hope you take the time to write back! Until then, maybe the Habs fight for every puck, win every battle and score some quality goals.
I have the HABS tattooed on my heart
Agree about Spacek... he's been doing okay for the Habs but could be doing more. I had high hopes for the old guy when Gainey signed him this summer. Markov has been playing like a blueline god -- no room for improvement there.
I... don't know if I'm ready to admit it yet, but I'm also having my doubts about Martin. I'm starting to think he's bringing a similar game style and vibe as Therrien did down in Pittsburgh. Look what happened when the Pens replaced Michel with Dan Bylsma.
Our draft choices haven't been stellar, but we have had some success. Price, Pleks, Markov, Halak... maybe our first rounders aren't panning out as superstars, but we get a lot of bang for the buck with later picks. I'm not sure if Gainey's move was about the future down in Hamilton or the present here in Montreal. After firing his friend Carbo, Gainey stepped back behind the bench. After seeing what he was dealing with, he blew up the team. I think he made solid signings -- this team is an upgrade over last year's. Younger, more skilled and even more experienced (Cup-wise).
Let's take this debate again in April, when we know how the boys are doing. I think that in Gainey's mind, we'll have to win at least 1 playoff round this season for all his work to be considered a success.
I guess you're right on certain levels and really I can't wait to ACTUALLY have the full roster play at least 5 games together!! The only thing that bothers me was to watch the Pens steal Crosby in the lottery! We were soo close, I remember waiting the commercial out then disappointment haha, Montreal got chosen 5th. So close!!
But i do think that Gainey wanted to fix the problem immediately. And that's what he did. Was it the right move for the future? I don't think so, but his decisions have been made for a long time, and we just gotta live with it.
Interesting stat i saw this morning on TSN! Read this!!! It's quite alarming! I don't know how you can say that Spacek is playing OK...he has been down right dreadful!
4 ( Spacek, O'Byrne, Hamrlik and Gorgers are in the top 9 in GIVEAWAYS!!!! I am not seeing the type of team JM should be coaching...defensive wise! They is RIDICULOUS when you think about it. No wonder our goalies are left to dry and face 35, 40+ shots a game!
Any comment on that?!
I have the HABS tattooed on my hearti
I love your positivity, Chris. some would call it wearing rose-coloured glasses, but I agree with you. This team has a lot more going for it than some people think. When healthy, they can compete with anyone. The one hole I see is lack of depth, and that's because guys like Pacioretty, D'Agostini, and Lapierre are not playing up to potential. With Moen, Metro, and SK74, I find we are not too bad, but they can only do so much...we still need a few goals from the other 3....and we're not getting nearly enough.
I, too think we can do a bit of damage in the playoffs. I'd actually be happy with winning 2 rounds, and looking to improve upon that next season.
Go Habs Go!! "I can't hear what Jeremy (Roenick) is saying because my Stanley Cup rings are in my ears" - Patrick Roy
I'd have happiness coming out my ears if we won 2 rounds this year. I think - and would be mildly content - if we're one and done.
In your estimation we have the horses to get to the conference final over one of the Capitals, Devils, or Penguins?
Well, it might be tough, but if we're completely healthy, who knows? I think we can beat the caps in a 7 game series, but I'd be really nervous playing the pens or devils. If we can get 1 round, and give a really good effort in the 2nd, I'd be ok with that...but hungry for more next year!
Go Habs Go!! "I can't hear what Jeremy (Roenick) is saying because my Stanley Cup rings are in my ears" - Patrick Roy
I love it! Looking at the schedule I think that the most important points in terms of teams we play will be February. Those 7 games are easily the toughest one we have to face this season IMO. All 6 teams were considered playoff contenders even a few cup favorites at the beginning of the season. Hopefully when these come around we can hopefully win 3 (Bos, Phi 2x). Lose to the Nucks and Pens. Then maybe get into vetime against Bos, Caps. That'd be sweet. 8/14 points ain't bad.
Although the western road trip doesn't look very easy i think we can take advantage of the Sharks and Ducks having so many players playing in the Olympics (especially the Ducks). Sharks have both their goalies playing and by the looks of it, I see Greiss as their starter for the game (put into consideration that Nabokov is the #1 goalie for the Russians and the make it deep). Germany doesn't seem to be in medal contention and if at that time the Sharks sit comfortably on top I don't see why it can't happen.
Go Habs Go!!
I have the HABS tattooed on my heart
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