Higgins For Gaborik? I Don't Think So...

posted by ericengels at 12h49 EST on Oct 20


The speculation has been widespread, and it’s unlikely to subside with Higgins on the sidelines once again, as the Habs welcome the Florida Panthers tonight. Montreal’s young left-winger has yet to play this season, and is definitely frustrated about having his name thrown around in rumors.

Here are a few reasons why you can forget about Marian Gaborik coming to Montreal for Chris Higgins:

-The Habs had seven players with over 50 pts last season (Higgins being one of them). Mark Streit is gone, but with Alex Tanguay, and Robert Lang in the fold there’s a good chance they can repeat, or even best that feat. The offense was the strongest in the NHL last season, and they haven’t shown any signs of slowing down in the early parts of this season.

-UFAS this summer: Alex Kovalev, Saku Koivu, Robert Lang, Alex Tanguay, Mike Komisarek, Francis Bouillon, Steve Begin, Mathieu Dandenault, Tom Kostopoulos, and Patrice Brisebois. RFAS this summer: Chris Higgins, Tomas Plekanec, Guillaume Latendresse, and Kyle Chipchura. RFAS the following summer: Carey Price, Sergei Kostitsyn.

If you’re Bob Gainey, and you can reasonably negotiate to keep most of the important players on that list, do you really think it’s worth it to bring in another player who’s looking at a 7-10-year deal, at a cap hit of 8 million/season? This is a real important question, because I, or anyone else who follows the Canadiens, can say with 100% certainty that Bob Gainey won’t trade any assets to Minnesota without a guarantee that Marian Gaborik will sign an extension upon, or even before his arrival.

Even if Gainey elects to part ways with Bouillon, Dandenault, Begin, Kostopoulos, Brisebois, and one of either Lang or Tanguay, he’s only shaving a maximum of 10.5 million. That money will surely be absorbed in deals for Alex Kovalev, Mike Komisarek, Saku Koivu, Tomas Plekanec, Chris Higgins, Guillaume Latendresse, and one, if not both Alex Tanguay, and Robert Lang. After all, these core players are the reason why experts, and fans, have picked the Canadiens to be skating for the Stanley Cup in June.

-Last season 25 trades were made before trade-deadline day. The first note-worthy one came on December 14th, when the St. Louis Blues traded Doug Weight, Michael Birner, and a 2008 7th- round pick to Anaheim for Andy Macdonald. Beyond that, it wasn’t until February 11th, when Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore found a new home in Ottawa, in a trade that sent Patrick Eaves, and Joe Corvo to Carolina. Vaclav Prospal went to Philadelphia the day before the deadline, and 22 other deals made previous didn’t involve anyone significant, let alone the top trade target: Marian Hossa.

We know that there is an impasse with Gaborik and Minnesota. The Wild want him to sign an extension now, and knowing that he’s the top free agent on the market, Gaborik is looking to field offers come July. Given all the reports, chances are Gaborik will move before the deadline…but in October?

-For Chris Higgins, Jaroslav Halak or Ryan Macdonagh, and a draft pick? So the Wild shed 6.33 mil in cap space, and the Canadiens send back roughly 2.4 if the deal includes Halak?

The Canadiens currently have just over $1,000,000 in cap space. But GMs can get very creative about clearing space... How creative can Bob Gainey get without hurting his team? Even if you switch some names around in this supposed deal it doesn’t work.

The argument for trading Gaborik so early is so his value doesn’t drop due to an injury (he already has one) or a slump, or another team’s skepticism at being able to get him under contract after acquiring him. Do you think the Minnesota Wild want to deal Marian Gaborik for Higgins, Dandenault and Bouillon or Begin? Can you think of any other teams that can offer a better deal?

“But this is an opportunity to reunite Saku with brother Mikko, and that makes sense as far as the cap is concerned”.

Yah, I agree! The Habs are probably going to take their second longest serving captain in team history, and trade him after he’s waited 12 years to play for a team like this in Montreal. They’re going to unload their top playoff performer for a guy who plays 60 games a year, and has never won anything. And I also think Sarah Palin would be an excellent President here in the land of things that should never happen.

I doubt Gainey is going to flip Alex Tanguay or Robert Lang after just acquiring them this summer. Kovalev is staying put…hopefully until he’s 50, and Andrei Markov, Roman Hamrlik, and Mike Komisarek will be a part of this organization for years to come.

So someone get out their calculator and explain to me how Bob Gainey is going to make this deal happen?

-As a General Manager you always want to make your team better. Gaborik is among the greatest talents in the league. He’s a pure scorer, and likely fits Montreal’s offense as well as anyone playing in the NHL. Gainey tried to get Sundin, but had to move on to plan B. Plan B seems to be working just fine, but because it’s labeled “plan B” everyone’s speculating he hasn’t given up on Plan A- Mats Sundin or a player of equal worth. These rumors won’t die until Gaborik is skating on another team, but I’ve yet to hear a logical argument outlining how the Canadiens and Wild can make this deal happen. Granted, sometimes things happen in the NHL that are completely void of logic…that’s why Mike Milbury had a job for so long.

Maybe this deal will go down…but in the midst of this economic crisis I wouldn’t hesitate to take some of my savings and wager that it won’t, especially not for the players mentioned…and especially not in October.  


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Comments

Eric - I see your a hit right of the bat and i see where 'krob' will be doing most of his debating and i'm hoping to meet you at one of our summit events (pre/apres) this weekend and i'm sure the many out of towners will be really keen on meeting their new blogger who they will be sharing this famous season with. Your off to a good start, hope to see you there.

lol nightmare you can't quarantine me ....I'm everywhere.....JT fights back so I was just there.....I'm Everywhere nightmare....everywhere. Mooo waahaha.

You were doing real good until you brought up Sarah Palin. Two things are still very uncertain. Habs 25th (which I hope for) and Obama's coronation (which I hope against). Can we stick to hockey and leave the hockey moms out of it or is this a "liberal/social democrat-only" hockey site?

Take it easy Pitbull. If you can't make light of the fact that a 40 something mother of 12 who has never left the US might not be ready to lead the free world, then become a Leafs fan.

Have a lot to say about your last sentence but will shorten to just "CRAP"!

doug's picture
it's a liberal/social democrat hockey site. not only, but in general. liberals aren't big on exluding others. you asked. . .

First off, I doubt we'll see any Halak trade until next year as the price to performance ratio is so good. The only way I can see him going any place is if a sweet deal is offered to Bob. In addition, I can only see a team looking for a potential starter going for him. With Backstrom in Mini he wouldn't get any more playing time than he will here. Halak is a young blue chip goalie that can be moved down the road to improve our team. As for Higgy, I know his name was brought up in trades last year but I cannot see moving a heart and soul type player who can play wing and center for Gabs. The habs like to roll their lines, I don't see an upside to bringing a guy like this in. Especially when I feel we are strong down the wing. The only possible trade I would like to see with Mini is bringing the Koivu brother together. But in a Habs uniform. Pleks and some other pieces for him. Makes us bigger down the middle, and a much more manageable money and long term situation. I doubt this would happen. If there was any trade, I can see it strengthening the D and it being a player under contract. We have enough signings to get done this off season currently and don't need to take on another big UFA contract.

cautiousoptimist's picture
Krob, as for injuries they count against the cap unless a player is place on long-term injured reserve, which means they can't come back for a certain number of weeks. And if we trade away Dandy and Begin, we're really hurting our depth in case of injury -- I sure am glad we have them tonight, for instance. We'd also have to pay the salaries of whoever we get for them, unless it's just picks. Essentially, you're right: we could theoretically fit Gaborik under the cap, but it would cost us, say, Higgins, Halak and a 1st rounder, plus the guys we'd have to get rid of to make cap room, like Dandy and Begin. So now it's Higgins, Halak, Dandy, Begin and a 1st-rounder in exchange for Gaborik and maybe a couple of low picks that we get for our fourth-liners. Not to mention that we only get Gaborik's services for 7 months at most -- either that, or we have to clear out at least one (more likely two) of Koivu, Kovy, Tanguay, Lang, Pleks and Komi. So now the cost for Gaborik (if he even decides to sign with us next year) is two of the guys from the list I just mentioned, plus Higgins, plus Halak, plus a 1st-rounder, plus Begin, plus Dandy. That's way too rich for my blood. In this new NHL they keep telling us about, it makes no sense to build a team around a star. Depth is way more important than having one or two superstars, and you can't have depth if individual players are eating up 15% of your cap. Gainey understands that better than most, which is whi he's fielding a team that has 9 guys who can score 20 times or more this year. One or two get hurt/sick/unlucky/unmotivated, and we still have two solid scoring lines and then some. 1. www.flickeringpictures.com - not a hockey site, but still kinda neat 2. Josh Gorges on Montreal's attack: "They're comin', they're comin' and they keep comin'. Just line after line, wave after wave..."

Not a single one of Begin, Dandy or Halak will be with us next year anyway. Between Begin and Dandy they will be lucky to play 82 games if there is no trade if they are rotated amongst a pool of 5 guys. Halak will likely play about 25 games but he is a number one talent who will likely not be content to remain in the shadows for another season. We risk losing all three guys for nothing anyway. If Gainey knows there is a risk of not signing Gaborik long term there is no deal for certain. The main benefit of Gaborik is moving forward and his potential impact over the next 4-6 years. I agree that our team is in good shape without Gaborik for this year but moving forward with a group of five top forwards all being free agents a move sooner than later would be proactive. Everyone is looking at this situation as a deal about now when IF (if there is any substance at all) it happened it would be aobut the next 5 years and ensuring we had the high octane, speedy go guys to maintain the organizational objective that is evidently a move towards speed and puck possession hockey. A first rounder is always steep and a guy like Higgy is hard to find....a guy like Gaborik is very ahrd to find. He would mesh well with our style and would give each line a triggerman. I am not sold on this yet but I not opposed either but this talk of it not being possible is driving me crazy. This talk of us pulling a Penguins last year drives me equally crazy...they had no depth and noone in the pipeline....we oon the other hand have more talent than spots for the next several years. Halak sure din't look like a backup tonight...then again he never does. Sergei looked out of sorts tonight and I can't help wonder if Andrei isn't as fine as we were led to believe. Every time the camera caught Sergei he appeared to have his mind elsewhere (he still played ok but his thoughts appeared elsewhere IMO).

cautiousoptimist's picture
I don't think you're crazy to suggest going out to get Gaborik, and there is a definite upside to landing a 42-goal-scorer, but I just think the price would be too steep when you factor in the guys we'd have to pass on signing over the summer. With Gaborik's $8.5M, we could pay three 25-goal guys and continue to have the depth that's so essential to contenders. Also, you're right that Begin and Dandy will very likely be gone next year, but if we deal them now we lose the invaluable depth they provide in our centennial Cup-run year. Begin with his excellent PK and Dandy with his versatility really come in handy on a night like tonight, with AK46 and Higgy hurt and Bouillon not at 100%. And even if we deal their combined $2.7M for picks and get no salary in return, we still have to call up guys like Max-Pac and Weber to fill their spots and pay them a combined $1.5M or so, so the net gain in terms of cap room isn't so much. As for Halak, he's signed for a very reasonable $800k through to the end of 09-10, and you're right to say that he's good enough to be a starter, but between him and Price we have one of the finest goalie tandems in the league, which is also essential for a contender. I wouldn't feel nearly as comfortable with Denis, Desjardins or Lacasse eating up Halak's 25 games or so per season. 1. www.flickeringpictures.com - not a hockey site, but still kinda neat 2. Josh Gorges on Montreal's attack: "They're comin', they're comin' and they keep comin'. Just line after line, wave after wave..."

Good points.

Blarneylad's picture
i'm on the fence regarding gaborik...hes better then higgins, in fact hes better then anybody on our roster save maybe a goalie. but he gets injured all the time. because of the injuries id say no to wanting him... id take hossa in a heartbreak, or a guy like kovalchuk...but i think i wouldn't bite on gaborik

twocents's picture
Eric, I agree with Wops, and we're likely to get mugged for stating it, but the only player on the Habs that makes a deal for Gaborik sound plausible is Kovalev. A left handed shooting right winger for left handed shooting right winger. Then the cap situation is way more manageable. But, honestly why would Minnesota do it? Kovy's UFA too and 9 years older so... There would have to be a younger very promising player thrown in for Risebrough to consider it. As you stated Gainey's not doing anything without discussing extension with Gabsorik's agent and Doug R. would want the same access to Kovy. BG can't risk that because if the deal doesn't happen he will have burst Kovy's bubble by letting him know he was considering moving him. It's all too tricky and I don't see it happening. But, if something does happen Kovy, Halak and a pick or prospect seem more plausible to me than anything I have heard from the media. As you point out, next summer becomes even more tricky if we take Gaborik on and we can pretty much guarantee the loss of one more of our core players. Is Halak being showcased tonight? It's hard to argue Price needs a rest.

coutNY's picture
Not if they were to make a move now on Gaborik. Kovalev has a no trade clause giving him say any moves to a Western conference team until end of Jan 2009(I guess you've noted this below), for that alone and the fact that Kovy has expressed on numerous occaisions he wants to stay in Montreal, IMO would shoot down a move to Minn...

twocents's picture
countNY, I agree. I wasn't suggesting that this was something that is likely to happen, I was trying to say that the whole Higgins thing seems really far fetched given the cap implications and that if you sit back and asked, who could we move to make space, Kovy would make the most sense, at this point from the Habs side, money wise, status wise, role wise. But, Minny would want a lot more in return due to Kovy's FA status. Then I remembered the trade clause. I don't think any of this is going to happen and I am happier that way. There are players that will fit our needs better than Gaborik between now and the deadline. Bouwmeester for one.

coutNY's picture
$.02 ~ sorry, I figured that out when I read below my initial post, but rather than delete it updated it with (saw it below in your next post). I would also agree it would be more of a parallel move for Kovy and Gaborik than a Higgins for Gaborik in terms of type of player, which I think was your point. If we were to spend the money on a young player I would opt for Bouwmeester also but in reality we would have to say goodbye to Komi in terms of long term affordibility... or could we support 20-22 mil in 4 defenseman? Its even questionable if we can afford Komi the way salaries are heading....?

twocents's picture
I agree, that is a reality. I can see us getting Bouwmeester more as rental player, for this year's drive. The only way to keep him long term would be to shift cap space priorities from the forwards but, I don't see that happening with the type of game Carbo is trying to play and with our D prospects looking so good.

ericengels's picture
Been to the Bell Centre recently? Ever hear the ovations for Kovalev. Granted his start here was awful, but once he figured it out (last year) do you think he wants to play anywhere else? Do you think Minny wants a Ufa in return for Gaborik? Do you think Kovalev wants to sign in Minny if Montreal passes on him this summer? Is it really that great of an upgrade? as far as Gaborik's age is concerned, I can't argue...but seriously does Gainey want to gamble on a maybe in Gaborik, and give up on Montreal's most beloved player in the process? So if that's the only player that makes a deal for Gaborik plausible...I guess we agree nothings going down. As far as Halak's moving is concerned...maybe down the line this season...but not yet, and probably not at all, unless Marc Denis plays the best season of his life in Hamilton. EE

twocents's picture
Yeah, it's far fetched but closer to being fetching than anything else out there. As far as your points go: - where Kovalev wants to play is not exactly a decisive concern for Gainey. - Do you think the stands would be any less full or energized, if we kept winning and had another exciting player in his place? Not to mention the ascendancy of our young stars, Price, Bros K., Lats and the addition of a fan favourite like Laraque and... you know Tanguay's going to start winning hearts? - Denis seems to off to that kind of start. But, yes we agree that nothing is likely to happen. Especially since I just remembered that Kovy may have a no trade clause that is good until February. Great post by the way, you encapsulate the whole thing very well.

Take a look at my first post on this thread and explain to me why there is no cap room.

twocents's picture
No offense but, I had a hard time following it. I think I see how you make the Higgins deal look doable from a cap perspective. However, there are several ifs in your proposal and all those chips have to fall into place fairly quickly for it to work. Also, if you check out HabFab's take, you'd see that your margins look a little too slim when considering potential injuries. I think you'd still have to trim another body krob.

Hmmm..not sure what was hard to follow other than a couple typos but anyway....At least one body is going to go anyway just because of the numbers game. We have Kosto, Begin, Dandy, Laraques, Chips and Laps all vying for 3 jobs....then we have Pacs, Dags and Stewart as potential callups if we shed a couple of salaries. I am not saying this is going to happen...quite the opposite in fact but those stating it can't happen aren't lloking at our depth (we have 3 fourth lines for some clubs).

twocents's picture
I meant what I said, 'no offense'. I am sure it's my own fault I couldn't quite grasp your first post. It's not an issue of depth, that we have, it's cap space, that's all I was talking about in the post directly above yours here. Depth on the wing we have, tons, no argument.

See my figures in Press Review October 18th ,believe it is 4th down.

Dintrox's picture
as per prorated contracts .. Breezer is paid for the season not per game. Unless he is on longterm IR his salary counts... I remember last season... Higgins was going to SJ and we were gonna get Marleau in return. Gaborik isn't going to finish the season in Minni ,but he is there for Xmas....

I meant a bonus structure. Isn't that allowed as part of the contract becasue I thought his contract was around 8ook and then more if he played a specific amount of games...not prorated but a bonus. I I also remember for two seasons we were going to get Tanguay, we were going to try for Hossa, Briere, Smyth, Shanahan, Sundin and everyone else...we did try to get those guys...trying and doing are two very different things.

Dintrox's picture
Thank you Eric... This Gaborik nonsense is a big waste of time. I must say that I was very skeptical when you joined Habs I/o as per your relationship with that rumour mill guy. I have since read a few of your blogs and can say you seem legitimate and have a good grasp of the game.

Wops's picture
Very very good article EE! The only thing though that we need to keep in my mind, is that Gaborik is only 26 YEARS OLD! Youngest of all UFAs! I love Kovalev with all my heart, but he is not getting any younger, same with Koivu, same with Lang. If you offer me to have Kovalev or Gaborik as your top right winger. The choice is simple on the medium to long term. _______________________________________ CH is for Chris Higgins

Tell me if this works cause I'm not sure about it and how the cap works. but...Don't we have 24 guys on the roster currently? Immediately if you say ...counted Dandenault as the od man out you are at 2.8 million (1.065 + 1.725). Hypothetically you trade Higgins and his 1.70 million and we are already at 4.5 million. Assume then that you trade Begin or Chips and you are at around 5.5 million. There will also be injuries that don't count and if Halak were a part of any deal that alone would bring you to the 6.3 million which a month in is probably already less (arent't they prorated?). Another question....isn't Brisebois surrently being prorated at 1.5 million/season ....isn't that based on games played and could be significantly less? LEaving a grinder pool of Kosto, Begin or Chips (one would be traded), Laps and Laraques. With forwards D'Agostini and Pacioretty ready to step in for injury. I do not want Higgins to go either but I can't help but wonder how he can forget that his name was allegedly thrown in as part of a deal for both Hossa and Sundin (the truth we'll never know but that is the rumour still). In order to get something you have to give something ....I'm not so sure we need anything but I do worry abut the future and I don't know where everyone is getting this 8 million figure from. First of all Hossa turned down similar money and what does he play for now??? He just didn't want to play in the cities that offered him the money. Second....everyone talks about Gaborik's health......well if he is injured for any length of time does it not get reduced from his "cap hit" anyway. We were going to fit Sudin's 7 million in somehow so I don't see how they couldn't fit Gaborik's next year IF, IF,IF there is any intereest at all and any serious discussions taking place.

coutNY's picture
You're making alot of assumptions.... it ain't exactly easy trading grinders that don't make much to begin, only to need to be replaced by another roster player making nearly as much as the original player moved. Injuries would count towards the teams salary cap unless they were placed on LTIR (long term injury reserve). It was more plausable to fit Sundin's demands under the cap when Lang's $4 million wasn't on the payroll and a possible Dandenault move for the salary relief. 23 roster players needed.

Not really assumptions as this is all a hypothetical game anyway.....just saying it is very possible if we wanted to do it without hurting the team now or going forward ....the cap would be tricky but not insurmountable.

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